EFF and Heavyweight Legal Team Will Defend Internet Archive Against Publishers
12 by toomuchtodo | 0 comments on Hacker News.
Tuesday, 30 June 2020
Monday, 29 June 2020
New on SI: 2020 Chicago Bears Team Outlook: Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky?
Even in a down year, the Chicago Bears squeaked out an 8-8 record. In 2020, they could seek a new direction by putting Nick Foles in the huddle over former No. 1 pick Mitch Trubisky.
Coaching Staff
After a breakthrough season in 2018 (12-4),
the Chicago Bears slipped to 8-8 last year because a fade offensively (29th in points scored – 280 and yards gained). They scored 141 fewer points than in 2018 (421).Chicago brought in Matt Nagy to be the head coach after a successful 2017 season as the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs. Nagy had ten seasons of NFL experience working under Andy Reid. He has a 20-12 record over two years as a head coach with one appearance in the playoffs.
Bill Lazor takes over as the offensive coordinator after spending 2019 as an analyst for Penn State. He has four seasons of offensive coordinator experience. His NFL career started in 2003 while coaching in the league for 13 years.
The Bears’ defense slipped to fourth in points allowed (298) and eighth in yards allowed while being less opportunistic.
Chicago brought in Chuck Pagano to take over the defense in 2019. His 2011 success as the Ravens' defensive coordinator helped him earn the head coaching job for Colts for six seasons. He went 11-5 in each of his first three years with Indy while making the playoffs each season. Pagano faded over his next three seasons (20-28), pushing his career record to 53-43. He has 19 years of experience in the NFL.
Free Agency
In the offseason, the Bears’ defense lost S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S Tashaun Gipson, CB Prince Amukamara, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, DE Leonard Floyd, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Sherrick McManis, DT Nick Williams, and DE Aaron Lynch.
Clinton-Dix was the best player lost. He played well every year in the league with success in both run support and pass coverage. Amukamara tends to be a league-average player in coverage. Kwiatkowski projects to see playing time on passing downs, but he does play well vs. the run and some production in sacks.
The Bears added DE Robert Quinn and CB Artie Burns to their defense. Quinn will start the year at age 30, but he does upgrade the pass rush. Burns has been up-and-down in coverage while seeing minimal playing time in 2019 for the Steelers.
Chicago moved on from WR Taylor Gabriel, QB Chase Daniel, TE Bradley Sowell, G Ted Larson, and G Kyle Long.
The best two players added to the offense were TE Jimmy Graham and T Germain Ifedi. Graham is past his prime, but he’ll start the year as the starter. Ifedi continues to underachieve in area of blocking,
Draft
The Bears didn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2020. They selected TE Cole Kmet and CB Jaylon Johnson.
Kmet does have some flaws coming out of college. His release, fight off pressed blocks, and initial quickness invites some questions with his three-down value. When given a free run to the second level of the defense, his game looks much better. Kmet will be a vertical threat with enough size and speed (4.7 forty yard dash) to hit on long plays down the seam.
Johnson has playmaking skills while showing the ability to work as a press corner. His speed (4.5 forty), quickness, and vision add to his coverage area. He gets in trouble at times when trying to cheat by looking at the quarterback eyes. I expect his game to be more reliable as the field shortens. Johnson also gains value when asked to play multiple coverages.
With their first two picks in the fifth round, Chicago added DE Trevis Gipson and CB Kindle Vildor.
Gibson brings an explosive first step while having the power to finish when seeing daylight. His lack of experience and technique leaves him short on pass-rushing moves and the thought process to vary his attack. To make a step forward, he needs to develop his hands. Gibson should offer rotational value early in his career while owning the talent to become an upside player.
Vildor shows strength and speed (4.44 forty) while being slightly undersized (5’10” and 190 lbs.). Just like CB Jaylon Johnson, his play should work well in both man and zone coverages. Vildor will make mistakes in coverage due to his vision falling more into the thinker-mentality, which leaves him late in his decision making. Even with some fight and power, Vildor doesn’t fire when needed in run support.
WR Darnell Mooney was the choice with their third pick in the fifth round. His game is built on big plays, but he doesn’t have the size (5’10” and 175 lbs.), strength, or hands to be trusted on many plays at the next level. The Bears will look to get him in space or use him on gadget plays where his open-field running could lead to long touchdowns. His speed (4.38 forty) gives him a chance in the deep passing game.
Chicago took a swing on a pair of guards in the seventh round (Arlington Hambright and Lachavious Simmons).
Hambright played tackle in college, but he is expected to be shifted to guard at the next level. His quickness is an edge off the snap, earning his best value as move blocker in a quick-hitting run game. His hands create early wins, but his technique with his feet invites some failure in pass protection.
Simmons comes with experience at tackle and guard. He lacks the bulk (290 lbs.) to anchor on the inside at this point in his career. At 6’5”, he should add weight and get stronger, helping his growth and game. Simmons owns an edge in reach while needing to improve his technique.
Offensive Line
Chicago dropped to 27th in rushing yards (1,458) with eight rushing TDs and five runs over 20 yards. Their ball carriers gained 3.7 yards per rush.
The Bears slipped to 25th in passing yards (3,573 yards) with only 20 TDs and 12 Ints. Their offensive line allowed 45 sacks and 86 QB hits. Chicago completed 39 passes over 20 yards.
LT Charles Leno
Leno started for the Bears over the last five seasons after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2014. In 2019, he allowed too much pressure on the quarterback while still grading as an edge for the fourth straight year. His play as run blocking took a big hit last year after playing well in this area over the two previous seasons.
LG James Daniels
Daniels improved in both run and pass blocking last year after moving into the starting lineup in Week 8 in 2018. Over two seasons in the league, Daniels allowed minimal sacks. He gains his edge with his quickness and lateral movement. Daniel offers the most upside in a quick-hitting run game while needing to add strength to handle power rushers in pass protection. Chicago drafted him in the second round in 2018.
C Cody Whitehair
Whitehair was one of the better centers in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round in 2016. Whitehair played left tackle in college while his natural position is at guard. In his first two years in the NFL, Whitehair rated well in run blocking. Over the past two seasons, he regressed in the run game. Whitehair now has two strong seasons on his resume in pass protection and a neutral showing in 2019.
The Bears will shift Ifedi back to guard after seeing action over his previous three seasons after right tackle. He continues to allow too much pressure in the quarterback no matter where he lines up while ranking poorly over the past three years as run blocker. Ifedi does have a first-round (2016) pedigree.
RT Bobbie Massie
Massie missed six games last year, with most coming from a right ankle injury. He had a rebound in his game in 2018, which was a result of success in pass blocking. Unfortunately, Massie has now failed in each of the last four seasons as a run blocker. Last year he finished as a league-average player in pass protection.
Offensive Line Outlook
This offensive line has a lot to prove in 2020 after struggling in all areas last year. The left side of the line added to the center position has a chance to be league-average or better. I don’t trust Ifedi to be an asset, but a position change should stabilize his weakness in pass protection. A new offensive coordinator should help this offense move back in a positive direction.
Offensive Schedule
The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.
2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
The Bears have 11 games for their rushing offense that rank close to the league-average. They have two below-par matchups (TB and NO) for their run game while expecting to have success against the Panthers and the Jaguars.
Chicago does have a favorable schedule for their passing offense. Based on last year, I don’t see any bad matchups. The Bears have six contests (NYG, TB, TEN, HOU, and DET X 2) that offer upside for their ability to pass the ball.
Offense
Last year the Bears ran a 40/60 split for the run/pass offense. Their offensive line struggled in all areas, which led to struggles on early downs in the run game. Chicago has a top defense, which points a change back to a run-oriented offense while hoping to regain some play-action value in the passing game. Their receiver core still has questions at tight end and their depth at wide receiver.
Here’s a look at the early projections for the Bears, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:
Quarterbacks
Despite playing through a left shoulder injury (labrum), Trubisky set career highs in completions (326) and pass attempts (516), but had a significant step back in his yards per pass attempt (6.1 lowest in the NFL – 7.4 in 2018).
Surprisingly, his WR1 (Allen Robinson – 98/1147/7) held value, which left failure behind almost every other door in the receiving game.
In 2018, Trubisky had the feel of a rising QB with slick movements as a runner (68/421/3). We see how that played out.
The Bears have questions at TE (46/425/2), but they did add Jimmy Graham via free agency and Cole Kmet in the draft. WR Anthony Miller (52/656/2) played through his second season with injuries while failing to develop into a top tier WR2.
I expect a bounce-back by the Bears’ offense in 2020 while being in the free-agent pool in most fantasy leagues. Viable QB2 if his season starts well. Trubisky had surgery in late-January to repair his labrum issue.
His ADP (260) remains low due to Nick Foles being in the mix to start.
I like the upside of Trubisky, but it comes down to wins to keep the job. On the first run of the projections, I gave him 95 percent of the quarterback playing time, which came to 4,081 combined yards with 25 TDs and 11 interceptions.
After helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl in 2017, Foles only played in nine games over the past two seasons. Over this span, he passed for 2,149 yards with ten TDs and six Ints while gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt. His completion rate (69.9) ranked above his career average (61.9) over the last two seasons.
In his career, Foles showed the ability to win games in 2013 (8-2), 2014 (6-2), and with Philly (10-3 – including the playoffs). His ADP (222) ranks higher than Mitchell Trubisky in the high-stakes market in mid-June.
Other options: Tyler Bray
Running Backs
Over the first two seasons with Matt Nagy as the head coach, the Bears have struggled to run the ball (3.9 and 3.7 yards per rush). They continue to give their running backs plenty of chances in the passing game (2018 – 101/963/6 and 2019 – 111/663/4). Last year their backs gained only 6.0 yards per catch, which was well below their 2019 success (9.5).
In 2017 and 2018, Chicago’s running backs scored 32 TDs combined or one per game. I expect another 30-percent opportunity for the running backs in the passing game with a rebound on early downs.
Montgomery wasn’t much better than RB Tarik Cohen last year on early downs (3.7 yards per rush), but the Bears still gave him 16.7 touches per game.
His only three contests of value came in Week 8 (147 combined yards with one TD and four catches), Week 9 (76 combined yards with two TDs and three catches), and Week 17 (23/113/1).
Chicago had him on the field for 63 percent of their plays.
Over his last two seasons at Iowa St., Montgomery rushed for 2,362 yards with 24 TDs on 515 carries. He gained only 4.6 yards per rush, which is unimpressive at the college level. He picked 71 catches for 582 yards in his college career. Many of his TDs came on short easy runs while lacking open-field moves and vision to create more significant plays.
There’s upside here with three-down ability, but the Bears need to solve their offensive line issues to create more significant plays. Borderline RB2 in draft value (ADP – 52), but Montgomery is worth fighting for on draft day.
I set his initial bar at 1,206 combined yards with nine TDs and 30 catches, ranking 26th.
Cohen had 143 touches last year, but he gained over 20 yards on just two plays. Both his yards per rush (3.3) and yards per catch (5.8) screamed bench role while showing much more upside in both areas in 2018 (4.5 and 10.2).
The Bears’ offense struggled in all facets last year, which gives Cohen a chance at a rebound in value this year. Even so, Chicago looks committed to RB David Montgomery (267 touches in his rookie season).
The bottom line here is the Bears’ offense needs to play better.
In 2018, Cohen finished as the 11th highest scoring RB (236.95) in PPR leagues (27th in 2019 – 164.10). My bullish projections came to 1,067 combined yards with five TDs and 72 catches as I view him as the second-best playmaker on the team. Cohen looks to be a value in drafts based on his ADP (108) in June.
Other options: Ryan Nall, Napoleon Maxwell, Artavis Pierce
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver opportunity for the Bears has grown by about six percentage points in each of the last two seasons despite questionable depth. Last year Chicago’s WRs accounted for 69 percent of their overall passing yards and 57.7 percent of their completions. They finished 10th in wide receiver targets (349) in 2019 while showing regression in their yards per catch (11.6).
The only bright spot in the Bears’ offense last year was the play of Robinson. He set career-highs in catches (98), targets (154), and catch rate (63.6) despite Chicago’s wide receivers catching only 214 passes for 2,484 yards and 14 TDs on 349 targets.
Robinson caught seven or more passes in eight games while finishing up the year with double-digit targets in five of his last six contests.
His better play came at home (52/646/4 on 82 targets).
He’s showing growth in his possession skills while also having the ability to make big plays. Over six seasons in the NFL, Robinson only has one other year of value (2015 – 80/1400/14).
Viable WR2 with his success tied to a rebound in the Bears’ fading passing game. Fantasy owners have him priced as the 12th receiver off the table in mid-June with an ADP of 36. His early projections came to 91 catches for 1,108 yards and seven touchdowns, which ranked 15th at wide receiver for me.
I’ve been a fan of Miller since he came into the league, but a left shoulder injury that required two surgeries limited his growth.
Last year the Bears’ offense was a mess in all areas. His star did shine in Week 13 (9/140/1) and Week 15 (9/118/1), which may be the signal for his breakthrough year.
Miller also had six games with one catch or less, which led to only five combined catches and 31 yards.
Over the last two seasons at Memphis, Miller caught 191 passes for 2,896 yards and 32 TDs while chipping in for another 94 yards and one TD rushing the ball. Anthony offers a unique combination of strength, route running, and open field ability. I love his moments with the ball and his adjustments to the ball in the deep passing game.
A forgotten player with a lot to prove in his third year in the league. Don’t dismiss as an upside WR5. Miller has ADP of 149 in June as the 52nd wide receiver off the table. I’ll start the bidding at 59 catches for 766 yards and four TDs and hope for more production.
Ted Ginn
The shine of Ginn being a viable third wide receiver ended in 2017 (53/787/4). He missed 11 games in 2018 due to a right knee injury that required surgery in mid-October. That season started with three steady games (5/68/1, 4/55, and 3/12/1). After returning from a ten-game injury vacation, Ginn caught 11 passes for 176 yards on 21 targets in his three games late in the year.
In 2019, the Saints gave him WR3 snaps for their first 11 games, but Ginn played well only in Week 1 (7/101). Over his final 15 games, he had two catches or fewer in 13 contests while never gaining over 50 yards.
At age 35, Ginn is only a flash player with a diminishing opportunity.
Javon Wims
His size (6’3’ and 215 lbs.) and hands should make him a viable threat at the goal line on fade routes. Wims has the wheels and pass-catching skill set to win jump balls in the deep passing game. His route running isn’t where it needs to be with questions in his release against press coverage.
In his second year in the NFL, Wims caught 18 of his 39 targets for 186 yards and one TD.
Riley Ridley
His route running, hands, and physical style grade well, but he can’t overcome some of his shortfalls in quickness and overall speed. The Bears would like him to develop into a possession type WR with limited value after the catch.
In his rookie season, Ridley caught only six passes for 69 yards, which came after a minimal career at Georgia (70/1026/13) over the seasons.
Other options: Cordarrelle Patterson, Darnell Mooney, Reggie Davis, Trevor Davis, Thomas Ives
Tight Ends
The tight end position in the Bears’ offense fell off a cliff in 2019. Their TEs gained only 9.2 yards per catch while scoring only a pair of touchdowns. Jimmy Graham adds another name this year, but his play has been fading since 2016. The addition of Cole Kmet does invite some intrigue, but he’ll need some time to develop.
Jimmy Graham
The two-year experiment in Green Bay didn’t go as planned for Graham. He struggled to score TDs with a diminishing opportunity.
Graham has four catches or fewer in 15 of his 16 starts while failing to gain over 50 yards in 14 contests.
Last year the Bears struggled offensively with the TE position being a part of the problem (46/425/2 on 69 targets).
A new home can’t offset his declining skill set at age 34. The Bears added TE Cole Kmet in the second round in this year’s draft, which steals snaps and targets away from Graham. I only see 42 catches for 461 yards and three TDs with no interest in the fantasy world based on his ADP (279 as the 35th TE drafted).
Cole Kmet
Heading into college, Kmet had top prospect pedigree for the tight end position. He had minimal chances over his first two years (2/14 and 15/162). His game pushed to an attractive NFL level over ten games (43/515/6) in 2019. Kmet missed the last two contests of the season with a broken collarbone.
The Bears will look to get him in space with motion before the snap to gain an earlier edge in pass patterns. At the goal line, Kmet will invite more scoring upside on delays or misdirection plays when he’s overlooked as a top scoring threat.
I expect him to get stronger and add more bulk, which will increase his value in both run and pass blocking. As of now, Kmet shows some foundation skills to have success as a blocker. He needs more fire or a sense of urgency off the snap while developing the foresight to anticipate where to locate his first target on the move when blocking.
His route running needs work with some questions with his hands when under fire. To be a stud TE, a player needs to own the short areas of the field. Kmet does not have that club in his bag at this point.
Kmet has an ADP of 296 in mid-June as the 64th tight end of the board.
Other options: Demetrius Harris, Adam Shaheen, Ben Braunecker, Jesper Horsted, Eric Saubert
Kicker
Eddy Pineiro
On draft day in 2019, the Bears traded for Pineiro to hopefully seize the kicking job. He missed all of 2018 with a groin injury.
In his two years at Florida in college, Eddy made 88.4 percent of his 43 field goal chances while missing only two extra-point tries in 58 attempts.
Pineiro made 23 of his 28 field goals (82.1 percent) in his first year with Chicago while recording a pair of misses in his 29 extra-point tries. He made both of his chances from 50 yards or longer. Early in the season, he played through a right knee injury.
In 2019, the Bears scored 30 TDs while creating 28 field goal chances. Possible upside if Chicago plays better offensively.
Defensive Schedule
Chicago’s run defense has a slight advantage in their schedule. They have five contests (IND, HOU, TEN, and MIN X 2) vs. teams that had some success running the ball in 2019. Six of their matchups (NYG, ATL, TB, LAR, and DET X 2) come against opponents that underperformed on the ground last year.
Their pass defense will get tested in two games (ATL and TB) plus the Rams, and the Saints should have success throwing the ball. Indianapolis ranked poorly in passing in 2019, but they should be improved with Philip Rivers starting at quarterback. The two games against the Vikings look favorable for the Bears pass defense.
Defense
The Bears fell to 9th in rushing yards allowed (1,632) with 16 TDs and nine runs over 20 yards. Opponents rushed for 3.9 yards per carry.
Chicago dipped to ninth in passing yards allowed (3,554) with 17 TDs and ten Ints. Their defense finished with 32 sacks (18 fewer than 2018). They allowed only 40 catches over 20 yards, which was the fourth-lowest total in the league.
DE Akiem Hicks
Hicks delivered the best season of his seven-year career in the NFL in 2018, where he was a beast in run support while adding 7.5 sacks and 55 tackles. Unfortunately, last year Hicks missed 11 games with knee and elbow issues. Over his previous three full seasons, he had 24 sacks in 48 games while grading favorably against the run.
DE Bilal Nichols
Over his first two seasons, Nichols had 55 tackles with three sacks over 27 games. His game regressed in all areas in 2019 while working as a rotational player.
DT Eddie Goldman
After playing at a high level vs. the run in 2018, Goldman regressed to the league average against the run. He offers minimal value in the pass rush with most of his playing time coming on early downs.
LB Khalil Mack
Entering 2019, Mack has 49 sacks over his last 62 games played. Last year he struggled to get to the quarterback (8.5 sacks – five-year low) while chipping in with 47 tackles. Over his previous two seasons, Mack delivered 11 forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, and eight defended passes. He remains one of the top run defenders in the league despite some missed tackles.
LB Roquan Smith
Smith delivered on his first-round value over his first 28 games in the NFL after Chicago drafted him eighth overall in 2018. Over two seasons of action, he posted 222 tackles, seven sacks, two Ints, and seven defended passes. Last Smith missed four games with hamstring and pectoral injuries. Even with his plus stats, he did show risk defending the run for the second straight season.
The Bears didn’t find a legendary power linebacker, but they did land an athletic speed player with great vision and anticipation. Smith should offer value in all facets of the game, but he will lose momentum if offensive linemen disrupt his free run at the ball carrier.
LB Danny Trevathan
Over the past six seasons, Trevathan only played a full season once (2018). He has over 100 tackles three times in his career, and he was well on his way to a fourth (70 tackles in nine games) before going down with an elbow injury in 2019. He only has nine sacks in 96 career games while picking up eight interceptions. Trevathan plays well in run support while improving in the pass rush.
LB Robert Quinn
Quinn regained his sack form (10.5 in 14 games) in 2019 after falling short of expectation over his previous four seasons (24 sacks over 48 contests). From 2012 and 2014, he finished with 40 sacks over 48 games. His run defense remains a liability.
CB Kyle Fuller
Fuller has 55 defended passes over the last three seasons. Last year he set a career-high in tackles (82) with three interceptions. Fuller gives up some big plays, and he’ll make some mistakes in TDs while improving as a player.
CB Jaylon Johnson
The Bears need Johnson to emerge as one of their top three cornerbacks in his rookie season. He did have surgery on his right shoulder in early March to repair a torn labrum. Chicago expects him to be ready for the start of the year.
S Eddie Jackson
Chicago signed Jackson to a four-year extension in early January for $58.4 million, but his play failed to match his excellent 2018 season (51 tackles, one sack, six Ints, 15 defended passes, and three TDs). He does an excellent job in coverage while helping in the run game. His one area of improvement is his tackling.
S Tashaun Gipson
In his only season with the Texans, Gipson struggled in all facets of the game. He’s never had a sack in his career (112 games). In most seasons, Gipson added to the run defense. His play in coverage improved over the last three seasons, but he will allow some TDs and big plays.
Team Defense Outlook
The two keys for the Bears' defense in 2020 will be regaining their pass rush and their offense, making more plays to help control the clock. They did address some of their issues in the offseason. Chicago has some playmakers, which invites scoring ability in the fantasy games. Top-ten option in the fantasy market with more upside if their core stays healthy.
Sunday, 28 June 2020
Saturday, 27 June 2020
Friday, 26 June 2020
New on SI: 2020 Washington Redskins Team Outlook: Treasure Hunting in a Fantasy Wasteland
There aren't any fantasy slam dunks in the nation's capital. SI Fantasy expert Shawn Childs runs down the Washington roster and breaks down the entire team with fantasy insights & analysis.
Coaching Staff
Washington gave Jay Gruden six seasons to bring the team back to prominence. Unfortunately, four years of mediocrity (31-32-1) sandwiched around two poor seasons (4-12 and 3-13) led to a search for a new head coach.
Washington brought in Ron Rivera to run the franchise after a solid run over eight seasons with the Carolina Panthers (76-63-1), which included four playoff appearances. His highlight year came in 2015 (15-1 with a loss to Denver in the Super Bowl). Rivera worked as a defensive coordinator over six seasons for the Bears and the Chargers while having 23 years of coaching experience.
Scott Turner worked as the quarterbacks coach for the Panthers in 2018 and 2019. He held the same position for three seasons for the Vikings from 2014 to 2016. Turner has eight years of experience in the NFL.
After sitting out two years after losing the head coaching job for the Raiders, Jack Del Rio takes over Washington's defense. Over 12 seasons as a head coach, Del Rio went 93-94 with three playoff appearances. His best success came in 2005 (12-4), 2007 (11-5), and 2016 (12-4). In 2000, he helped the Ravens win the Super Bowl as the linebacker coach for the Ravens. Del Rio has 20 years of coaching experience.
Free Agency
Washington focused on improving their secondary in free agency by signing CB Kendall Fuller, CB Ronald Darby, and S Sean Davis.
Fuller graded well in coverage in his two seasons with the Chiefs. He missed five games last year due to a broken thumb. Fuller failed to intercept a pass in 2019 with a decline in his defended passes (2).
Darby played well in coverage in 2017 and 2018, but he lost his way last year. Over the previous three seasons, he missed 20 games.
Davis missed 15 games last year with a torn labrum in his shoulder. Over his first three years after getting drafted in the second round by the Steelers, he made plenty of tackles (70, 92, and 80) with five interceptions and 20 defended passes.
Washington added Kevin Pierre-Louis and Thomas Davis for depth at linebacker.
They moved on from QB Case Keenum, WR Paul Richardson, RB Chris Thompson, CB Kayvon Webster, RB Wendell Smallwood, and CB Coty Sensabaugh.
The offensive line lost G Ereck Flowers. He struggled to make an impact at left tackle before moving to left guard last year. His game improved in pass protection while still showing downside as a run blocker.
Washington signed T Cornelius Lucas and G Wes Schweitzer for depth on the offensive line while also releasing C Tony Bergstrom and T Donald Penn.
The upgrades in depth at tight end came from the additions of Richard Rodgers and Logan Thomas. Washington added Peyton Barber for insurance at running back.
Draft
With the second overall pick, Washington drafted DE Chase Young. He projects as an impact pass rusher with a devastating combination of speed, quickness, and athletic ability. Even with a limited foundation in his pass-rushing moves, Young piled up numerous sacks (27) over his last two seasons. His game is built on attacking, but he needs to develop more awareness to improve his play in run support. A franchise-type player who should have a long successful career.
In the third and fourth rounds, Washington went the developmental play-maker route at the wide receiver position (Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden).
Gibson checks in at 6'0" and 228 lbs with an impressive showing in the 40-yard dash (4.39) at the NFL combine. His vision grades well while showing the ability to break tackles. Circle player meaning a fantasy owner needs to pay attention to where he goes in drafts.
From a size (6’4” and 225 lbs.) and strength (22 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine) perspective, Gandy-Golden looks ready for the NFL. His change of direction quickness hurts him when asked to work the short areas of the field or on comeback routes. Gandy-Golden does show a better release than expected with the ability to create after the snap when moving forward. He’ll threaten to score in the red zone with the talent to high ball contested catches.
Before 2019, drops were a problem, which may work back into the equation by playing with a quarterback with more zip on his passes.
Washington invested in T Saahdiq Charles and C Keith Ismael in the fourth and fifth rounds.
Charles is another upside swing, thanks to his quickness and athletic ability. His strength and base aren’t where they need to be. Charles should improve with better technique and the development of his hands. His first step is better balance and timing off the snap.
Ismael projects well as a run blocker while having experience at guard and center. He gets off the ball quickly with the ability to gain leverage at the point of attack. Ismael can be hit or miss vs. power, and his vision isn’t ideal.
Washington focused on their defense with their final three selections – LB Khaleke Hudson, S Kameron Curl, and LB James Smith-Williams.
Hudson is a powerful man with the quickness to win off the snap in the pass rush. His cover skills are lacking while being too big to be a true safety and too small to be a difference-maker at linebacker in run support. Hudson has a disrupter mindset while lacking the 30 to 40 lbs needed to win versus big bodies inside.
Curl is a second player added to this defense who plays with strength and speed (4.6 forth). His feel for pass routes looks to be an asset, Curl does have risk vs. deep speed, and his change of direction feel isn’t great. He should play well when moving forward in run support. Curl can’t match the quickness of top slot wide receivers.
Smith-Williams worked hard to add strength (28 reps in the bench press) and bulk to his body over his NC State career. His speed (4.6) looks to be an edge, but his quickness and explosiveness are trailing. Smith-Williams has a long history of injuries while lacking impact production. His game has a chance to be a factor in the pass rush with the fight to help against the run.
Offensive Line
Washington ranked 22nd in rushing yards (1,774) in 2018 with nine TDs. Their runners gained over 20 yards on 11 plays while gaining 4.4 yards per rush.
Washington fell to last in the NFL in passing yards (3,205) with 18 TDs and 13 Ints. Their offensive line allowed 50 sacks and 97 QB hits.
LT Geron Christian
Over his first two years in the NFL, Christian only made two starts while only seeing 189 snaps in his career. He missed most of his rookie season with a torn MCL in his right knee. In his limited playing time in 2019, he allowed only one sack while struggling as a run blocker.
Washington took a chance with OT Geron Christian in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He needs to add more strength in his upper body to improve his success in run blocking on quick-hitting plays. His foot speed grades well in pass protection while showing the ability to be a move blocker. Christian comes with useful base techniques except for his hands, which may improve with more fire in his guns. His next step in his development comes from deciding when to attack or let the defender come to him.
LG Wes Schweitzer
In mid-March, Washington signed Schweitzer to a three-year deal for $13.5 million. Last year he battled a shoulder injury while also missing some time with a concussion. His game doesn’t create an edge in either run or pass blocking, but he did minimize the damage in sacks over the last two seasons.
C Chase Roullier
Despite a sixth-round draft value in 2017, Roullier played well in pass blocking each year in the league. He has experience at left guard as well. Last year he improved as a league-average player in run blocking.
RG Brandon Scherff
Scherff has been an asset after getting drafted in the first round in 2015. Last year he missed five games with ankle, elbow, and shoulder injuries. In December, Scherff had surgery to repair a torn labrum. He continues to improve in pass protection with success in run blocking in most seasons.
RT Morgan Moses
Moses played at a high level in 2016 and 2017 after struggling in his rookie year. Over the past three seasons, he settled into only a steady option while allowing plenty of sacks early in his career. Washington rewarded him with a five-year extension in April of 2017. Moses is a former third-round pick.
Offensive Line Outlook
This offensive line has two steady players with Brandon Scherff being the top option. The left side of the line does have risk while hinging the development of Geron Christian. I expect more success in run blocking than upside in pass protection. Washington will rank below the league average on the offensive line.
Offensive Schedule
The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.
2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Washington has almost a neutral schedule for their rushing offense. They should have the most success running the ball against the Bengals, the Browns, and the Panthers with the most struggles coming vs. Baltimore, and two games against Philadelphia.
Washington has four favorable matchups (ARI, DET, and NYG X 2) for their passing offense. They will be challenged in the air in four games (CLE, BAL, PIT, and SF).
Offense
For Washington to become relevant in the passing game, they need a trusted pass-catcher at tight end and development of their wide receiving corps. The strategy here is to play good defense and run the ball, which points to a balanced offense. To achieve this goal, Washington has to win more games. Their first step is running more overall plays to increase the value of their offensive players in the fantasy market.
Here’s a look at the early projections for Washington, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:
Quarterbacks
Dwayne HaskinsWashington didn’t give Haskins his first start until Week 9. Over seven games as their top QB, he passed for 1,225 yards (175 YPG) with seven TDs and three Ints.
His game was trending forward over his final one and half contests (394/4) with strength in his completion rate (72.1).
Haskins suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 16, which ended his season.
Washington has a weakness at TE (44/467/3) and underwhelming options at WR (178/2069/13) other than Terry McLaurin (59/919/7). Both Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden offer upside, but they will take time to develop.
Haskins has talent, but he needs more weapons to push his way up the QB rankings. Look for growth this year, while still lacking a front line WRs and a viable option at TE.
As a sophomore for Ohio State with a starting job, Haskins passed for 4,831 yards with 50 TDs and eight Ints. His completion rate (70.0) edged out Kyler Murray while offering no upside as a runner (79/108/4).
He came to the NFL with a big arm and with prototypical size (6’3” and 220 lbs.). Most of his snaps came out of the shotgun in college while receiving a big passing window on a high-volume of plays. His game gives me a Philip Rivers feel while looking stronger with more rip on his throws.
Haskins can extend plays with subtle movements in the pocket, but his lack of trust in his speed kills his chances of breaking many runs over three yards. He will be a threat to beat defenses in the deep passing game while needing to improve his decision making when forced to settle for mid-level throws.
Fantasy owners priced him as the 31st quarterback with an ADP of 204. I have Haskins projected for 3,329 combined yards with 19 TDs and 12 Ints.
Other options: Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Steve Montez
Running Backs
Despite moving in the wrong direction in wins, Washington did improve in yards gained rushing (4.48) and yards per catch (8.76) from 2018 (4.30 and 7.57). Their running backs finished with almost identical touches over the past two seasons (401 and 410).
Over two seasons in the NFL, Guice already has three injuries (a torn ACL in his left knee, a torn meniscus in his right knee, and a sprained left knee).
He looked electric based on his 5.8 yards per rush and 11.3 yards per catch over his five games played. His best game came in Week 13 vs. the Panthers (10/129/2 with two catches for eight yards).
Over his final two years at LSU, Guice gained 2,868 combined yards with 29 TDs and 27 catches.
He attacks the line of scrimmage if the play calls for him to be a north/south runner plus run with vision and acceleration to the outside. His burst upfield is sneaky, leading to defenders being left in the dust if they fail to take the correct angle on a tackle. Guice creates space and separation with his quick cuts and the ability to downshift and upshift in a couple of steps. He’ll break many tackles while also taking some unnecessary hits in his quest to finish runs. Guice has a talent for breaking out of tight quarters when a play looks dead in the water.
A risk/reward player who will be found at the backend of the RB pool with an ADP of 92 as the 33rd RB off the table. My conservative bar comes to 766 combined yards with four TDs and 33 catches.
Adrian Peterson
As Peterson enters his 15th season in the NFL, he ranks fifth all-time in rushing yards (14,216) with a longshot chance of climbing to third (needs 1,132 yards). Over the past two seasons, Peterson gave Washington multiple good games as an injury cover to RB Derrius Guice. Washington picked up his option for 2020, but his role will be lower this year. Peterson is only an insurance card at this point in his career with minimal value in the passing game.
In his only season with starting snaps for Memphis, Gibson worked in a split role at running back (33/369/4) and wide receiver (38/735/8). He scored a TD on 16.9 percent of his touches (plus two TDs on kick and fumble return) while gaining massive yards per rush (11.2) and yards per catch (19.3).
I’m looking at him as a running back option in 2020 due to the injury risk of Derrius Guice. Right kind of target, and I expect him to gain momentum in fantasy drafts (ADP of 195 in early June) over the summer.
Bryce Love
After Christian McCaffrey left Stanford for the Panthers, Love rushed for 2,118 yards with 19 TDs while offering minimal value in catches (6/33). The next season he battled injuries during the year before his season ended with a torn ACL in his right knee. Bryce finished with 838 combined yards with six TDs and 20 catches in his senior year in 2018.
Other options: J.D. McKissic, Peyton Barber, Josh Ferguson
Wide Receivers
Despite a last-place ranking in passing yards, Washington's wide receivers finished with 48 catches for 836 yards and seven TDs more than 2018 (145/1694/8). Their wide receivers gained 63 percent of their passing yards.
McLaurin hit the ground running in his rookie season after getting drafted in the third round.
Over his first five games, he caught 23 of his 38 targets for 408 yards, and five TDs highlighted two impact games (5/125/1 and 4/100/2).
When his college teammate took over at quarterback, McLaurin only played well in Week 15 (5/130/1) and Week 16 (7/86).
Washington took a pair of fliers on big WRs (Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden), which almost ensures that McLaurin will be their top target again in 2020.
His early projections came to 72 passes for 1,071 yards and seven TDs with an ADP of 27.
Steven Sims
Washington signed Sims as an undrafted free agent in 2019. He came to the NFL as an undersized wide receiver (5’10” and 176 lbs.) while offering speed and quickness.
Over the first 13 games, Sims had a minimal role (18 catches for 120 yards – 6.7 yards per catch). He offered sneaky value over his final three games (5/45/1, 6/64/2, and 5/81/1) while receiving 29 combined targets.
Washington remains in flux at WR with the hopes of their two 2020 draft options developing down the road. Sims has a churn-and-burn feel if he’s getting starting snaps. I set his bar at 51 catches for 633 yards and four TDs.
Overall, he needs more overall development with his route running, but his game did show growth in 2019. Over his two seasons at Liberty, Gandy-Golden caught 150 passes for 2,433 yards and twenty touchdowns with his best success coming last year (79/1396/10).
Even with an edge in build, Gandy-Golden may struggle to make plays over the middle of the field when faced with tight coverage and a looming safety coming hard at him.
Possible 45 catches for 560 yards and three TDs with an ADP (290).
Other options: Trey Quinn, Cody Latimer, Cam Sims, Darvin Kidsy, Jester Weah, Emanuel Hall
Tight Ends
Washington struggled to make plays at tight end in 2019, which led to only 44 catches for 467 yards and three TDs on 73 targets. The dropdown in production was tied to weakness in talent at the position.
Jeremy Sprinkle
After two minimal seasons (2/13/1 and 5/41/1), Sprinkle took advantage of the injury to Jordan Reed to post 26 catches for 241 yards and one TD. In his top two seasons, he caught 60 passes for 769 yards and ten TDs. Low-upside player who will split time with multiple other options.
Other options: Logan Thomas, Richard Rodgers, Thaddeus Moss, Hale Hentges, Caleb Wilson
Kicker
Dustin Hopkins
Over his five seasons in the NFL, Hopkins made 84.9 percent of his field goals with success over 50 yards (11-for-21). He has seven missed extra-points in his 146 chances. His only relevant season came in 2016 (34-for-42 of his field goals with 36 extra-points). Last year Hopkins made 25 of his 30 field goals while Washington scored only 28 touchdowns. Solid leg, but the offense still has a ton of work to do offensively.
Defensive Schedule
Washington has a challenging matchup for its defense against the Ravens plus four other tough matchups (SF, SEA, and DAL X 2). Washington has three contests (LAR, CIN, and PIT) vs. teams that struggled to run the ball last year and three mid-tier matchups (DET and NYG X 2).
Their pass defense will be texted in three games (LAR and DAL X 2) while having two matchups (BAL and PIT) vs. teams that ranked low in passing yards in 2019. Both offenses will be improved this season. Overall, their passing schedule looks to be neutral.
Defense
Washington fell to 31st in rushing yards allowed (2,339). Ball carriers gained 4.7 yards per rush with 14 TDs plus only 16 runs over 20 yards.
Washington finished 18th in passing yards allowed (3,823) with 35 TDs and 13 Ints. QBs beat them for nine plays of 40 yards or more while their defense picked up 46 sacks.
DE Ryan Kerrigan
Kerrigan missed the first four games of his career due to a calf injury. He finished with a career-low in tackles (25) and sacks (5.5). Over his previous three years, he posted 37 sacks while averaging about 41 tackles while playing well vs. the run.
DE Chase Young
Over the last two years in college, Young picked up 27 sacks and over 35 tackles for a loss. He’ll instantly upgrade the pass rush and run defense.
DT Jonathan Allen
Allen played well over his last two seasons, which led to 129 tackles and 14 sacks after getting drafted in the first round in 2017. In 2019, his game lost momentum vs. the run.
He has the tools to be an outstanding pass rusher at the next level with enough vision to help vs. the run. Even with talent, quickness, and athletic ability, Allen does come up short in his size (6’3” and 286 Lbs.) for an interior lineman while lacking the speed to be an impact option on the edge. He has upside for sure, but Washington needs to get him into favorable matchups as he can lose his value when doubled or facing size.
DT Daron Payne
Payne picked up 112 tackles, seven sacks, and five defended passes over his first two years. Washington drafted 13th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Payne showed growth defending the run in 2019.
His game is built on power and strength, leading to a massive advantage against the run. His follow-through in the pass rush tends to be boring if stalemated at the line of scrimmage. Payne has more speed than initial quickness off the snap.
LB Reuben Foster
Foster missed all of 2019 with a torn ACL in his left knee. The 49ers drafted him in the first round in 2017, which led to 72 tackles and no sacks. Over three years in the leagues, Foster missed 32 games.
LB Jon Bostic
In his first year for Washington, Bostic set a career-high in tackles (105) while offering no upside in the pass rush. He’s never been a top player while showing risk vs. the run.
LB Thomas Davis
Davis will start 2020 at age 37. Last year he recorded over 100 tackles (112) for the seventh time of his 11-year career. Davis rarely rushes the quarterback while only being a neutral player in run support.
CB Kendall Fuller
In 2017, Fuller ranked highly in pass-coverage for Washington, but he left town for two seasons. His catch rate allowed is rising, which led to him shifting to safety for half of his games in 2019. Fuller adds value against the run.
CB Fabian Moreau
Over seven starts in his 12 games played, Moreau struggled in all areas. He allows too many big plays in 2019 with too many missed tackles. Ronald Darby looks to be his biggest threat, but his game makes the most sense in slot coverage.
S Landon Collins
The move to DC last year led to Collins posting his fourth season with over 100 tackles (117) while adding one sack and four defended passes. He allowed low yards per catch, but receivers scored five touchdowns. His best value still comes defending the run.
S Sean Davis
Washington hopes Davis plays at the level he showcased in 2018 for the Steelers. That season he played at his highest level against the run with some growth in pass coverage. Over his first three seasons in the NFL, Davis has plenty of tackles (242), but his overall game still needs plenty of work.
Team Defense Outlook
Washington has plenty of talent on their defensive line with one linebacker with upside. Washington has risk in pass coverage in their secondary, although Collins can be, at times, one of the best safeties in the game. Overall, they should improve against the run with their success in their ability to shorten the passing window—a sneaky top ten defense with matchup value.
Thursday, 25 June 2020
New on SI: 2020 Philadelphia Eagles Team Outlook: Fantasy Projections, ADP, Franchise Expectations
A few years removed from their Super Bowl win, the Philadelphia Eagles hope to recapture that old magic with a couple new faces in the huddle.
Coaching Staff
The
Philadelphia Eagles have three straight postseason appearances under head coach Doug Pederson, which includes a Super Bowl title in 2017. He pushed his career record to 38-26 while picking up four wins in six playoff chances. Over the previous three seasons, Pederson was the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. He worked under Chiefs head coach Andy Reid for eight years in Philadelphia and Kansas City.Even with a winning record in 2018 and 2019, Philadelphia struggled to make an impact in points scored (367 – 18th and 385 – 12th) and in yards allowed (14th) in both years. Last year, the Eagles won their final four games to steal the NFC East division title from the Cowboys.
Philly won’t have an offensive coordinator in 2020, which leaves the responsibilities divided between three options – Press Taylor (passing game coordinator), Rich Scangarello (senior offensive assistant), and Matt Burke (run game coordinator).
Jim Schwartz will run the defense for the fifth straight season after taking a year off in 2015. Over five seasons as a head coach for the Lions, he went 29-51 with one playoff berth. He has 13 years of experience as a defensive coordinator. Schwartz helped the Eagles win the Super Bowl in 2017.
Last year Philadelphia improved to 10th in yards allowed and 15th in points against (35).
Free Agency
The top two players added via free agency were DL Javon Hargrave and CB Nickell Robey-Coleman. Hargrave will button up the run defense up the middle while improving the pass rush. Robey-Coleman isn’t an elite coverage player on the outside, but his game plays well out of the slot.
S Will Parks was a minor addition to the defensive side of the ball.
Philly lost CB Ronald Darby, DT Timmy Jernigan, LB Nigel Bradham, DE Vinny Curry, and LB Kamu Grugier-Hill from their defense.
Darby played well in coverage in 2017 and 2018, but he lost his way last year. Over the previous three seasons, he missed 20 games.
Bradham has been hot and cold in run support over the last five seasons while showing fade in his tackling skills.
The Eagles parted ways with RB Jordan Howard, who landed in Miami. WR Nelson Agholor landed a job in Las Vegas.
Philadelphia didn’t re-sign T Jason Peters after a long successful career in all areas.
G Halapoulivaati Vaitai shifted to the Lions, and C Jeremy Zuttah will collect his next payday in New Orleans. Both players received handsome contracts in the offseason.
Draft
In a surprise move, Philadelphia selected WR Jalen Reagor 21st overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Even with some questions with his initial quickness and change of direction value coming back to the line of scrimmage, Reagor has the talent to make big plays at the next level. His speed (4.47 forty) is deceiving, and he does play with strength (17 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine).
The Eagles invested in QB Jalen Hurts in the second round. There’s a lot to like here while not getting his proper due by scouts. His movements in the pocket as a runner have similarities to Deshaun Watson while also having Daunte Culpepper feel.
Hurts went 38-4 in his college career while playing for two top programs. He plays with a physical style with the ability to drive the ball deep downfield with velocity with a flick of the wrist. His run reads are exceptional at times, especially in the red zone.
His next step in development is a better pocket presence as far as commitment to the pass. Hurts’ shortfall in this area is coachable, as well as teaching him to make quick, accurate throws over the short areas of the field.
In the third and fourth rounds, Philly added LB Davlon Taylor and S K’Von Wallace.
Taylor continues to develop his game, built on speed (4.49 forty), strength (21 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine), and athletic ability. He is undersized (6’0” and 228 lbs.) for a linebacker. His lack of experience takes on a looker feel in play development, leading to mistakes in coverage and poor timing on some plays in run support. If he figures out the mental part of the game, Taylor has the tools to be an upside defender.
Wallace needs some work in pass coverage, which is hurt by questionable decision-making and change of direction quickness. He’ll attack the line of scrimmage in run support with the talent to get the quarterback when his number is called in a blitz package. His next step is improving his playmaking in coverage.
Philadelphia turned back to the wide receiver position in the fifth and sixth rounds (John Hightower and Quez Watkins).
Hightower brings speed (4.43 forty) to the wide receiver position with some open field ability. His challenge comes versus press coverage while not having the best hands to win in close quarters. His route running is trailing at this point in his career.
Watkins was the second shot at a deep threat for the Eagles. His speed (4.35 forth) grades well, while his short-area quickness won’t create an edge when facing tight coverage at the line of scrimmage. Watkins can win his share of 50/50 chances with his best chance of success coming over the long field and on crossing patterns.
The last two additions to the defense were LB Shaun Bradley (6th) and LB Casey Toohill (7th).
Bradley earns his keep by being in the right place at the right time. He plays with awareness and patience, but his strength (14 reps in the bench press) hurts him when meeting big bodies in traffic. Bradley will get tested in pass coverage due to his lack of change of direction explosiveness.
Toohill comes with pass-rushing skills, but his desire to attack leaves him open for mistakes in run support. His game has the most value when attacking the line of scrimmage while having a free run. Toohill needs to add more pass-rushing moves, get stronger, and improve his anchor if he wants to earn more playing time at the next level.
Philly drafted T Prince Tega Wanogho. He is a developmental project, who offers the most upside in pass protection. Wanogho already shows strength in his hands and quickness. His technique needs work, as does his feel for oncoming defenders.
Offensive Line
The Eagles jumped to 11th in rushing yards (1,939) with 16 rushing TDs. They averaged 34.3 yards per carry while gaining over 20 yards per rush in seven runs.
Philadelphia scored 27 passing TDs while doing an excellent job minimizing the damage in interceptions (8). They slipped to 16th in passing yards (4,063) while gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks and 102 QB hits.
In his rookie season after getting drafted 22nd overall, Dillard made four starts with three coming at left tackle. He handled himself well in two games with full-time snaps. Overall, Dillard failed to make an impact in any area of the game.
His athletic style is tied to his plus footwork gives him an edge at left tackle. He projects well in pass projection while needing more time to develop all of his skill set in the run game. In 2020, he takes over for Jason Peters, who had a sensational career over 13 seasons.
LG Isaac Seumalo
In his first year with a full season of stats, Seumalo improved to a league-average player in all areas. He still gives up a few sacks with a couple of bad games in pressure to the quarterback. The Eagles drafted him in the third round in 2016.
C Jason Kelce
Kelce remains one of the best players at his position. In 2019, his game did regress in run blocking while allowing the most pressure to the quarterback in his career. Kelce is a former sixth-round draft pick (2011) with seven other strong seasons on his resume.
RG Brandon Brooks
Brooks played exceptionally well over his four seasons with Philadelphia. He minimizes the damage in sacks while ranking highly in each year in the league in pass projection. His run blocking came in at an elite level after showing regression in 2018. Last January, Brooks had surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder.
RT Lane Johnson
In December, Johnson battled a left ankle injury that cost him the final four games, which included the playoffs. When on the field, he dominated as a run blocker while continuing to be an asset in pass protection. Johnson is a former first-round pick (2013).
Offensive Line Outlook
The right side of this line has the most upside in run blocking while having the talent to rank with the best teams in the league in overall strength. There will be a learning curve at left tackle, and most of the downside in the pass rush should come on that side of the line. Overall, this offensive line has a top ten upside if all players stay healthy, and Dillard plays up to his first-round pedigree.
Offensive Schedule
The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.
2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Philly starts and ends 2020 with two top matchups for their rushing offense against the Redskins. They have two other favorable games (CIN and CLE) while expecting to be challenged on the ground by Baltimore and New Orleans.
The Eagles should have the most success passing the ball against the Cardinals and their two contests vs. the Giants. Philadelphia has three straight games (SF, PIT, and BAL) over the first half of the season vs. teams that ranked poorly in passing yards in 2019. The Browns’ pass defense also played last year.
Offense
The Eagles ranked seventh in rushing attempts (454) and eight in passing attempts (613), an attractive combination for a fantasy owner looking for talented players.
This team relies on the tight ends in the passing game while owning a developing three-down running back. Carson Wentz holds his own in passing TDs with minimal damage in turnover. Philly needs to make more explosive plays in the deep passing game at wide receiver to develop further offensively.
Here’s a look at the early projections for Philadelphia, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:
Quarterbacks
Heading into 2019, I thought Wentz had a chance to shine based on his combination of WRs and TEs. By midseason, the luster was gone after passing for only 1,567 yards (224 per game) and eight TDs over a seven-game stretch.
Despite weakness at WR (151/1684/11) due to injuries, Wentz rose from the dead to lead the Eagles to a playoff berth over his final five games (4-1) averaged over 300 yards and two TDs per contest. Wentz passed for over 300 yards in five games and posted three TDs in four starts.
His season ended quickly in the playoffs after suffering a concussion.
Philly has the best combination of TEs in the league, with a developing star at running back. Wentz needs WR Jalen Reagor to hit the ground running to push him toward the top six QBs.
Last year he was the 10th highest scoring QB (20.64) in four-point passing TD leagues. After the first run of the projections, I have Wentz on a path for 4,268 combined yards with 27 TDs and nine Ints. His early ADP (88) ranks ninth at the quarterback position.
Hurts had one of the more interesting quarterback careers in college football. He earned the starting role for Alabama early in 2016, which led to 2,780 passing yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs. His success on the ground (191/954/13) helped the Crimson Tide go 14-1 with a loss to Clemson in the national championship game.
The following season Hurts saw most of the quarterback action during the regular season, but Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench to steal the show in a win over Georgia in the championship game and eventually the starting job in 2018.
Between 2017 and 2018, Hurts passed for 2,846 yards with 25 TDs and three INTs. He also ran for 1,022 yards and ten touchdowns on 190 carries.
After a transfer to Oklahoma, he went 12-2 with his best success throwing the ball (3,851 yards with 32 TDs and eight Ints), leading to a 69.7 percent completion rate. The Sooners worked him hard as well in the run game (233/1298/20).
The Eagles may try to get him involved at other positions in 2020 or even run plays for him at the goal at the quarterback position where his mobility adds value in scoring.
Other options: Nate Sudfeld, Kyle Lauletta
Running Backs
The running back output and opportunity for Philly grew in back-to-back years. In 2019, their RBs gained 2,494 combined yards with 19 touchdowns and 90 catches, which works out to 453.4 fantasy points in PPR leagues. The upside at running back lies in the workload of Miles Sanders.
Over the first ten games in a split role with RB Jordan Howard, Sanders gained about 69 yards per game with two TDs and 24 catches.
With Howard out of the picture, he helped the Eagles to a playoff berth with success over his next five contests (588 combined yards with four TDs and 23 catches) on 21.2 touches per game. Sanders played at the highest level in Week 15 (172 combined yards with two TDs and six catches) and Week 16 (156 combined yards with a TD and five catches).
Sanders finished 15th in RB scoring (219.8) in PPR leagues while being on the field for 53 percent of the Eagles' RB plays. At a minimum, Sanders will see a 20 percent growth in touches (229 in 2019) this year.
I have him projected for 1,500 combined yards with 12 TDs and 55 catches on 290 touches, making him a top 10 running back option in 2020. Sanders has an ADP of 12 in early June as the eighth RB off the table.
Boston Scott
With Eagles banged up at running back and wide receiver, Scott emerged as a secret weapon over the last quarter of the year. Philly doesn’t win the NFC East without his two big games (128 combined yards with one TD and six catches and 138 combined yards with three TDs and four catches) against the Giants.
In his other three contests down the stretch, Scott gained 132 combined yards with 16 catches. A quick undersized player with some heart may slide to RB3 for the Eagles in 2020.
In 2017 at Louisiana Tech, Scott gained 1,228 combined yards with nine TDs and 20 catches.
Fantasy owners gave him an ADP of 141 in early June as the 50th running back drafted.
Other options: Corey Clement, Elijah Holyfield, Adrian Killins, Michael Warren
Wide Receivers
With the Eagles having pass-catching talent at tight end, their wide receivers have a smaller piece of the passing offense than most teams. In 2019, Philly had injuries at wide receiver, leading to only 38.6 percent of the team's completions and 41 percent of their passing yards. They also had a regression in their catch rate (58.1).
Alshon Jeffery
The Jeffery fantasy flame is fading by the turn of each calendar day. Last year he played well in two games (10/76/1 and 9/137/1), but a zero in Week 2 and six missed games led to a seven-year low in catches (43), receiving yards (490), and targets (73).
His last impact season came in 2014 (85/1133/10). Jeffery had foot surgery in December, which may lead to him starting the year on the shelf. Earlier in 2019, he battled an ankle injury.
At age 30, Jeffery looks to fading with 20 missed games over the past five seasons. A low flying dart that rarely sticks on the board for a full year. I’ll set his initial bar as 58 catches for 712 yards and five TDs.
Even with his negatives, Jeffery still looks viable as a WR5 based on his ADP (193).
His college career started with 33 catches for 576 yards and eight TDs as a freshman in 2017. The following year he led the team in receiver production (72/1061/9) despite playing with three different lower-tier options at quarterback. Texas Christian struggled to throw the ball in 2019 (53.4 percent completion rate), which led to Reagor turning in a below-par season (43/611/5).
TCU used him on fades at the goal line, but his burst off the line didn’t look special in close. He will win his fair share of jump balls in the end zone. Reagor shines the most with the ball in his hands when seeing daylight. His acceleration through the second level of the defense is impressive when given space to make plays. He’ll challenge defenses in the deep passing game.
Overall, there is work to do to become a complete wide receiver while having plenty of talent. Some of Reagor’s development was restricted by the structure of his team last year.
The Eagles have upside in catches at RB1, TE1, TE2, and Alshon Jeffery will be active when on the field. Reagor is one of the tougher wide receivers to put an evaluation on early in 2020. He'll also start the year behind DeSean Jackson the depth.
I only see 32 catches for 442 yards and four TDs out of the gate while being overvalued by fantasy owners. His projections will rise over the summer if his training camp news remains positive. Reagor has an early ADP of 153 as the 54th wide receiver drafted.
DeSean Jackson
The excitement of Jackson returning to Philly after a five-season vacation lasted a whole 67 plays in 2019. He created a buzz after dominating in Week 1 (8/154/2).
An abdomen injury cost him most of the next 15 games.
Over his last six years, Jackson averaged over 17.5 yards per catch in five different seasons. The Eagles desperately need to improve their deep passing game (only six catches over 40 yards in 2019, and Jackson has two of them).
Flash player who is past his prime. Only a 40 to 50 catch guy going forward while still capable of multiple impact games over a full year of starts.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
Arcega-Whiteside will be a forgotten option at wide receiver this year after a quiet rookie season (10/169/1). The Eagles added him in the second round in 2019. He brings size (6’3” and 225 lbs.) to the WR position.
His hands and strength give him an edge on jump balls in the end zone, but he needs to improve his route running and his overall technique to become a complete player at the next level. Arcega-Whiteside lacks speed, so his success will come from his ability to be physical on his release and route running. A training camp player to follow with upside if the news is positive on his development.
Other options: Greg Ward, Marquise Goodwin, John Hightower, Quez Watkins, Robert Davis
Tight Ends
Over the last two seasons with Dallas Goedert added to the roster, the Eagles have been the top team from the tight end position. In 2019, their TEs caught 38.4 percent of the team’s completions, which was helped by the injuries to their wide receivers.
Zach Ertz
No team threw more to the TE position (150/1,573/12) than Eagles in 2019.
Their success at TE was two-fold. The Eagles struggled to make plays at wide receiver (151/1684/11), and Dallas Goedert (58/607/5) is an attractive second option at TE.
Ertz finished second the league in TE targets (135) while playing through rib and back injuries late in the year and missing Week 17.
Over the last three years, he has 22 TDs in 45 games. Like Travis Kelce, Ertz had a step back in big games (9/103/1 and 12/91/1) compared to 2018 (11/94, 10/112, 10/110/1, 9/138, 14/145/2, and 12/110/2).
Based on the early ADPs (56), I expect him to be a value on draft day compared to the top two options (Travis Kelce – 22 and George Kittle – 27).
Great resume and floor, but Philly has a developing pass-catching RB, and they surely need more balls directed at the WR position to help this win total. I set his bar at 90 catches for 883 yards and six TDs.
Dallas Goedert
After a tremendous final two seasons (92/1293/11 and 72/1111/7) at South Dakota State, Goedert worked as the TE2 for the Eagles in his first two years.
Last year his stats (587/607/5) nearly doubled from 2018 (33/334/4) thanks to Philly having weak options at the wide receiver position.
After a quiet first nine games (24/257/4), Goedert added more consistency over his final seven contests (including playoffs) in catches (41) and yards (423) while regression in TDs (1).
Getting better with growth expected, but his opportunity for impact production lies in the health of Zack Ertz. Playable TE2 at times due to his ability to score while owing impact upside if he ever earned the full time starting job. Possible 60 catches for 600 yards with four to six touchdowns.
Other options: Joshua Perkins, Alex Ellis, Noah Togiai
Kicker
Jake Elliott
There is plenty of upside potential in the right leg of Elliott, but he needs the Eagles to create more scoring chances. His best opportunity (31 field goal attempts and 42 extra points) came over 15 games in his rookie season in 2017. Last year he had the highest success in both field goals (84.6) and extra points (94.6) percentage. Elliott only made four of his nine kicks from 50 yards or longer over the last two seasons. The bottom line here is better play at QB and WR.
Defensive Schedule
Other than their game against the Ravens, Philadelphia has almost a neutral schedule for their run defense. Their best success should come in five games (LAR, CIN, PIT, and WAS X 2) while also having four unfavorable contests (SF, SEA, and Dal X 2).
On the passing side, the Eagles have six games (PIT, BAL, ARI, CLE, and WAS x 2) that ranked poorly in pass yards allowed. Three of their opponents (Steelers, Ravens, and Cardinals) should be improved throwing the ball in 2020. Philadelphia will be tested in the air by the Rams, the Saints, and the Cowboys (2).
Defense
The Eagles climbed to 3rd in rushing yards allowed (1,442 yards), which was helped by 22.1 rushing attempts per game. They allowed 4.1 yards per rush with 13 TDs and ten runs over 20 yards and three rushes over 40 yards.
Philly jumped to 19th in passing yards allowed (3,865) while allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. QBs tossed only 27 TDs with 11 INTs while being sacked 43 times. The Eagles did allow 15 completions over 40 yards.
DE Brandon Graham
In his tenth year in the league, Graham finished with 50 tackles and the second-most sacks (8.5) of his career. His play remains at a high-level against the run with his only risk coming in tackling.
DE Derek Barnett
Over his first 35 games after getting drafted in the first round in 2017, Barnett has 67 tackles and 14 sacks. He set career-highs in tackles (30) and sacks (6.5) in 2019. His game remains strong in run support.
DT Fletcher Cox
Cox struggled to get to the quarterback in 2019 (3.5 sacks), but he continued to produce plenty of pressure. Cox set a career-high in sacks (10.5) the previous season while creating tremendous pressure. He remains an elite anchor vs. the run.
DT Javon Hargrave
Hargrave gives the Eagles another top player against the run while showing growth as a pass rusher. Last year he finished with the most tackles (60) of his career with four sacks.
LB Davion Taylor
Philadelphia doesn’t have an elite option at one of their outside linebacker spots, which gives Taylor a chance to see plenty of snaps in his rookie season. Speed and strength shouldn’t be a problem, but gaining experience is a must for him to become an asset.
LB Jatavis Brown
Brown fell out of favor for the Chargers in 2019, which started with an early-season ankle issue. Over his first three years in the league, he averaged 85 tackles with 4.5 combined sacks and 12 defended passes. His run defend is fading with no upside rushing the quarterbacks.
LB Nate Gerry
Gerry saw a bump in playing time last year, leading to a sharp increase in tackles (78) with 2.5 sacks. He missed a ton of tackles with no clear edge in any area.
CB Darius Slay
The Eagles traded for Slay in March, which upgrades their pass coverage. He lost his way in run support over the last two seasons. Slay tends to draw the opponent's best wide receiver in coverage with some mistakes in touchdowns allowed.
CB Sidney Jones
Over his first three seasons, Jones worked over the bench in coverage. He struggles against the run while showing growth in coverage in 2019. Philadelphia drafted him in the second round in 2017.
S Jalen Mills
The Eagles will shift Mills to safety this season. At cornerback, he allowed plenty of big plays with no edge in run support. His best play comes as the field shortens.
S Rodney McLeod
McLeod adds value in pass coverage from the safety position while consistently picking up more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. He is trending in the wrong direction against the run.
The defensive line sets the tone for this defense, but their linebacker corps rank below the league average. The secondary should be improved in coverage. Their safeties have a lot to prove in run support—more of a No. 2 fantasy defense with matchup value.
Wednesday, 24 June 2020
Tuesday, 23 June 2020
Monday, 22 June 2020
New on SI: 2020 Los Angeles Chargers Team Outlook: Buy-In Now on the Justin Herbert Takeover
The Justin Herbert era has already begun! SI Fantasy expert Shawn Childs examines the Los Angeles Chargers from players to coaches and everything in between.
Coaching Staff
In his first two seasons at the
Los Angeles Chargers head coach, Anthony Lynn had a 21-11 record, which was highlighted by an excellent 2018 (12-4 with a bye and one win in the playoffs). Last year LA slipped to 5-11 due to a massive regression in scoring (337 points – 428 in 2018), despite improving one spot in offensive yards (10th).Over the last 20 years, Lynn spent much of his time coaching running backs leading to an assistant head coaching job with the Jets and Bills from 2013 to 2016. Buffalo promoted him to offensive coordinator in 2016. He brings a running style to the offense while understanding the need to be a better defensive franchise.
Los Angeles promoted Shane Steichen to offensive coordinator at the end of October in 2019. After the season, they decided to reward him with the job this season. Steichen spent most of his college coaching career with the Chargers. His highest ranking job before 2019 was the quarterback’s coach.
Their defense improved to sixth in yards allowed, which as the fourth straight year of growth. Unfortunately, Los Angeles regressed in the points allowed rankings over the past three seasons (272 – 3rd, 329 – 8th, and 345 – 14th).
Gus Bradley returns as the defensive coordinator for his fourth year. Bradley went 14-48 over four seasons with Jacksonville, but his defense did progress in 2016 (6th in yards allowed). He held the defensive coordinator position for the Seahawks from 2009 to 2012 with three other years of experience as the linebacking coach for Tampa Bay.
Free Agency
The Chargers’ franchise will have a different face at quarterback after parting ways with Philip Rivers. He signed a two-year deal with the Colts. Rivers helped LA to a winning season in eight of his 14 years while compiling a 123-101 record.
Los Angeles also lost RB Melvin Gordon to the Denver Broncos. He gave the Chargers scoring ability along the skill set to play on all three downs.
LA brought in Chris Harris to improve the depth and strength at the cornerback position. Harris played well in coverage over multiple seasons for Denver.
They signed T Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph, and LB Nick Vigil.
Bulaga has ten seasons of experience in the NFL after getting drafted in the first round in 2020. For most of his career, he played well in pass protection while showing fade as a run blocker in four of his past five years.
Joseph is another ten-year vet who projects well in run support. He’ll add value to the pass rush, but his game is trending backward in this area.
Vigil saw the most playing time of his career in 2019, but he continues to be a non-factor in the pass rush. He did set a career-best in tackles (111) last year, despite showing weakness in tackling and in run support.
Their other losses to free agency were S Adrian Phillips, LB Thomas Davis, WR Travis Benjamin, and FB Derek Watt.
Phillips played well in 2019, but he missed multiple games due to a broken forearm. Ove his previous two years, he showed league average success.
Draft
With the sixth overall pick, the Chargers addressed their need for a franchise quarterback by adding Justin Herbert. His arm is NFL ready. Herbert looks to drive the ball downfield with velocity and accuracy. His next step is growth in his touch in the red zone while improving his decision making against better zone defenses. Herbert is a better runner than I first envisioned. He breaks out of the pocket with acceleration and power, which will help score TDs in close and extend drives.
Los Angeles invested in LB Kenneth Murray with their second selection in the first round. Murray flashed speed (4.52 forty) and strength (21 reps in the bench press) in this year’s NFL combined. His ability to make impact plays when moving forward is his drawing card. Murray has a disrupter feel with a willingness to fire when seeing an open gap. To reach a higher level, he needs to improve his vision and develop a better restraint when to exit his protected part of the field.
Their next choice didn’t come until round four, leading to the addition of running back Joshua Kelley. Both his speed (4.49) and strength (23 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine) grade well. Also, he added some more bulk in 2019 (5’11” and 212 lbs.).
Kelley looks good inside the five-yard line and in short-yardage situations where he has a willingness to drop and drive to create yards in tight quarters. He runs with power with the ability to break tackles against trash in close quarters. Kelley projects as a north/south runner, but I see more dimensions to his game. He offers some head and shoulder fakes when breaking in space while not losing his momentum. His hands grade well, and I expect him to make plays in the passing game.
With two of their final three picks in the fifth and seventh rounds, the Chargers added WR Joe Reed and WR K.J. Hill.
Reed brings a running back mentality to the wide receiver position. His experience at both positions in high school led to him developing as a wide receiver in college. He offers plenty of speed (4.47 forty) and strength (21 reps in the bench press), but his route running doesn’t set him apart from the top talent at the position. Reed is at his best in the open field with the ball in his hands. He projects well in the return game, and the Chargers may decide his future lies back at the running back position.
Hill is on a path to work out of the slot with the Chargers. Even with a winning foundation in his route running, his game lacks the desired speed and quickness to win vs. tight press/man coverage or in the deep passing game. Hill should excel vs. zone coverage and upgrade the offense over the short areas of the field. His hands and strength look to be assets.
Los Angeles acquired S Alohi Gilman in the sixth round. He almost has the mirror image of K.J. Hill but on the defensive side of the ball. Gilman wants to attack moving forward in run support. His early commitment can turn into a liability if he takes the wrong angle or faces to retreat on a play-action pass. Gilman’s success or failure falls on the development of his discipline and growth as a player in coverage.
Offensive Line
The Chargers fell to 28th in the NFL in rushing yards (1,453) in 2019 while gaining only 4.0 yards per carry. They scored 12 rushing TDs with nine runs over 20 yards. Last year they averaged 22.9 rushes per game due to game score.
LA rose to sixth in passing yards (4,648). Their offensive line allowed 34 sacks and 93 QB hits as well. The Chargers finished with only 24 passing TDs and 20 INTs with receivers gaining over 20 yards on 57 plays.
LT Trey Pipkins
In the third round in 2019, the Chargers placed their bet at tackle on Pipkins. He needs to get stronger while having question speed and quickness. His first step creates some early positioning, but his technique is trailing at this point in his career. Pipkins needs to prove he can handle better competition in the pass rush.
In his rookie season, he made three starts at left tackle after seeing minimal playing time over the other 13 weeks. He struggled in pass protection while also coming up short in run blocking.
The left tackle position looks to be in flux this year, with no one standing out to be a difference-maker. With a rookie quarterback set to see a decent part of the playing time this year, it doesn’t project well his success.
LG Dan Feeney
Over three seasons and the last two coming as a full-time starter, Feeney failed to make an impact in any area. Sacks and pressure remain a problem, and his candle can’t seem to light for his improvement in the run game. When paired with a weak option at left tackle, Feeney lives on an island with rising water.
C Mike Pouncey
Pouncey missed the final 11 games in 2019 due to a neck issue that required surgery in October. It’s been four seasons since he played at a high level. His run blocking is trending down while still having a pulse in pass protection. At age 31, his upside window is closing quickly.
RG Trai Turner
The Chargers traded for Turner in early March in a deal that sent LT Russell Okung to the Panthers. In 2019, Turner struggled with sacks and pressure to the quarterback while also being a weak link in run blocking in back-to-back seasons. Over his first four years in the NFL, Turner offered a steady winning skill set at right guard.
RT Bryan Bulaga
After a ten-year career with the Packers, Bulaga made the jump via free agency to the Chargers in the offseason. He’s been a solid player in pass protection over the last six years, but Bulaga will allow his share of sacks. His run blocking has been more cold than hot of late, but the explosiveness of Aaron Jones in 2019 did help his game push back to a high level.
Offensive Line Outlook
The right side of the offensive line will rank above the league average, but the risk at left tackle is a significant problem. Run blocking and providing passing windows will be up and down all year. Overall, the Chargers’ offensive line ranks in the bottom third of the league.
Offensive Schedule
The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).
This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.
2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.
2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.
Out of the gate, the Chargers have five favorable matchups (CIN, KC, CAR, MIA, and JAX) over the first eight weeks for their rushing offense. Mixed in over this stretch is three games (TB, NO, and NYJ) vs. teams that played well against the run in 2019. Their season ends with four other contests (BUF, NE, and LV X 2) against teams that ranked better than the league average in rushing yards allowed.
The best matchup for their passing offense should come against Tampa, followed by two mid-tier outings vs. the Raiders. The Chargers have one tough three-game stretch from Week 11 to Week 13 against Denver, Buffalo, and New England.
Offense
In the past, this offense wanted to run a ball-control offense that featured the running back position. With Philip Rivers no longer in the picture, the Chargers need to develop a new identity on offense. They have receiving talent at RB, WR, and TE, but their offensive line looks to be trailing. When adding in the change at quarterback, it is tough to predict who will start in Week 1 and which option emerges over the long haul. Also, game score would restrict the upside of the rushing offense.
On the positive side, Los Angeles should play well defensively.
Here’s a look at the early projections for the Chargers, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:
Quarterbacks
The Ducks gave Herbert playing time at QB in four different seasons. After taking over as the starting QB in 2016, he missed five games the following season with a broken collarbone. Over the last two seasons, Hebert started 27 games. His best year came in 2019 (3,471 passing yards and 36 combined TDs).
Over his first three seasons, Herbert showed value as a runner (58/161/2, 44/183/5, and 71/166/2). Last year he gained only 50 yards on the ground on 58 carries, but he did score four TDs.
Over his final three games in his senior year, Herbert passed for fewer than 200 yards in each contest (174, 193, and 138) with one combined passing touchdown.
The move to the Chargers gives him two viable top 24 WRs and a top 10 TE, plus a game plan to throw to RB Austin Ekeler on many downs to help move the chains.
When doing the first run of the projections in 2020, I gave Herbert 12 starts (2,868 combined yards with 16 TDs and 11 INTs). His fantasy value over the summer once there is some coach-speak on his progress and potential starting opportunity.
Herbert has an ADP of 243 in drafts completed in May.
Tyrod Taylor
With Rivers now playing in Indy, Taylor stands on the top of the Chargers’ depth chart at quarterback in early June.
Over his three seasons as a starter for the Bills (22-20), Taylor helped his success with his ability to run (283/1575/14). Over this span, he passed for 8,857 yards (201 per game) with 51 TDs and 16 INTs. His M.O. is a ball controlled game manager, which may help Los Angeles win this year.
Taylor looks willing to take the dump-off pass to the running back position or the TE, but the upside of the skill players will take a hit if he somehow survives to start for Los Angeles in September.
Other options: Easton Stick
Running Backs
Over the last three seasons, the Chargers relied more and more on their RBs in the passing game. In 2019, their running backs led the NFL in catches (148), receiving yards (1,357), TDs (9), and targets (182).
Twice over the last three seasons, Los Angeles came up short yards per rush (4.05 in 2017 and 4.12 in 2019).
The overall opportunity in this offense for the running back position paints a high upside picture, but decision making and game flow change a lot with Philip Rivers no longer in the picture.
Ekeler will be much more of a wild card in 2019 after the downgrade at the quarterback position. He’ll remain a top player in the passing game, but his targets may fall well short of 2019 with regression expected in scoring.
The Chargers will use Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley on early downs as well. Over the final 12 games last year, Ekeler gained 337 yards on 76 carries while failing to score a running touchdown. Most of his production on the ground over the span came in two games (12/70 and 8/101).
His season started with a dominating game (154 combined yards with three TDs and six catches) while adding five other productive outings (133-1-6, 122-2-5, 118-1-7, 108-0-8, and 213-1-4).
Even with the RB1 job and potential opportunity, his touches don’t project much higher than 16 per game. He finished last year fourth in RB scoring (311.0) in PPR league with 224 touches.
His early ADP is 15 as the 12th RB drafted. With 80 catches, 1,200 combined yards, and eight TDs, Ekeler should finish in the top 12 in RB scoring in 2020.
Justin Jackson
With RB Melvin Gordon out of the picture, Jackson should be rewarded with a rotational role on early downs with a chance at 25 or so catches.
The Chargers gave him a bump in touches over a five-game stretch late in 2018, which led to 305 combined yards with two TDs and 13 catches.
He missed nine games last year while battling calf and hamstring issues. The Chargers like to feature the RB in the passing game, but they are at the mercy of who they start at quarterback.
Los Angeles also added RB Joshua Kelley in the fourth round of this year’s draft, who may end up being the player with more upside.
Kelley had two productive seasons at UCLA (225/1243/12 and 229/1060/12) with his best value coming in the passing game (27/193) in 2018. His path in college started at the University of California at Davis.
His career at UCLA began as a walk-on player with minimal value in his first two games (6/20 and 5/7). Kelley rushed for over 100 yards over his next four contests while ending the year with a touchdown in each of his final eight games, highlighted by a monster showing vs. rival USC (40/289/2).
Last year he had four games with over 100 yards rushing (27/127/1, 18/176/1, 34/164/4, and 23/126/2) but also had multiple games (6) with fewer than 80 yards on the ground.
Over the last two years, Kelley didn’t play for a good team (7-17). In the right situation with 15 touches a game, I expect him to outperform his draft value.
Other options: Darius Bradwell, Derrick Gore
Wide Receivers
Over the past three years, the Chargers have completed 52.5, 55.5, and 45.2 percent of their passes to their wide receivers. Even with a below-par overall opportunity, they remained productive in receiving yards (2,792, 2,699, and 2,499) while averaging 299 targets per year. Philip Rivers struggled to make scoring plays for his WRs last year (eight TDs) after delivering 22 TDs in 2018.
Their lack of chances was directly tied to the pass-catching opportunity by their running backs. This season I don’t expect any regression for the Chargers even with fewer passing yards and passing attempts.
Keenan Allen
Allen finished 3rd (284.2), 12th (261.1), and 6th (262.0) in fantasy points scoring in PPR leagues over the past three seasons. Over this span, he averaged 101 catches for 1,263 yards and six TDs on 150 targets.
His 2019 season started with 29 catches for 404 yards and three TDs over his first three games. He scored only three more TDs with no other games with over 100 yards receiving over his final 13 weeks.
In 2020, the Chargers’ offense takes on a whole new look with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert battling for the starting QB job. Until I get a cleaner update on who starts, I’m dropping his targets, catches, and receiving yards by 20 percent, which comes to 78 catches for 963 yards and six TDs.
Allen has an early ADP of 54 as the 21st wide receiver off the board. Possible value with a clearer picture of the starting quarterback structure.
Mike Williams
Over the last two seasons, Williams showed the ability to score TDs (ten TDs in 2018) and make big plays (20.4 yards per catch in 2019). His targets (89) remain in a weak area while showing fade in his catch rate (55.1 – 65.2 in 2018).
He didn’t score his first TD until Week 14. Williams finished with ten games with three catches or fewer.
His luster is gone, and the questions at QB leave a fantasy owner looking for upside elsewhere. I like his talent and potential. I don’t like his opportunity and the multiple plays where he gets up slowly with what appears to be an injury.
I have him projected for 54 catches for 804 yards and six TDs. His ADP (127) is much lower than in 2019.
In his senior season at Virginia, Reed caught 77 passes for 679 yards and seven touchdowns on 116 targets. He gained only 8.8 yards per catch, which is more in line with a running back’s output. In 2018 in a limited role, Reed gained 18.6 yards per catch while scoring seven TDs despite finishing with short chances in catches (25), receiving yards (465), and targets (37).
Over his final three years in college, he returned five of his 79 kickoff chances for a touchdown while averaging 29.9 yards per kick return.
Reed may be more insurance for Ekeler than a viable option at wide receiver early in his career.
Andre Patton
The Chargers gave Patton 17 targets in his rookie season, but he caught only six passes for 56 yards. He signed as an undrafted free agent out of Rutgers. From 2014 to 2016 in college, he caught 61 balls for 1,115 yards and nine TDs on 87 targets. A low upside player that does bring size (6'2" and 200 lbs.) to the wide receiver position.
Other options: Jason Moore, Darius Jennings, K.J. Hill, Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson, Jeff Cotton
Tight Ends
The transition from Antonio Gates to Hunter Henry hasn’t been as smooth as expected for the Chargers. In 2018, LA’s tight ends finished with a minimal opportunity (48/567/3 on 68 targets) after being relevant in the fantasy market the previous year (81/943/7 on 119 targets). The loss of Henry for four games early in 2019 led to a lower output than expected, even with success in receiving yards (792), TDs (6), and catch rate (70.1).
Hunter Henry
Hunter will be a tempting TE option in 2019, but fantasy owners could have a wide range of options on his value after the Chargers drafted QB Justin Herbert with the sixth overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.
In each year, his catches, yards, and targets have improved, despite a decline each in games played (15, 14, and 12). Both his TD production (19 in 41 games) and catches over 20 yards (23) grade well while posting a high catch rate (71.2) in his career.
Henry came into 2019 with concerns about his recovery from a torn ACL in his right knee, but he suited up for opening day (4/60). By Week 2, he was on the shelf for four games due to left knee injury.
After shining his first two games (8/100/2 and 6/97) back in the starting lineup, Henry caught 37 passes for 395 yards and three TDs over his final nine games.
Top ten TE talent with an ADP of 92 in the early draft season in PPR leagues. My first read on his opportunity came to 65 catches for 744 yards and four TDs.
Other options: Virgil Green, Stephen Anderson, Andrew Vollert, Donald Parham, Jared Rice
Kicker
Michael Badgley
Over his first two seasons in the NFL, Badgley missed 14 games. When on the field, his leg did offer upside while still needing to prove himself from long range. Between college and the NFL, Badgley made only four of his 14 kicks from over 50 yards.
He made 28 of his 32 field goals so far in his career while missing one extra point in his 47 tries.
The Chargers have the offensive pieces to produce points in 2020 if they solve the quarterback position. In 2019, they scored 37 touchdowns while creating 34 field goal chances.
An attractive backend option if Badgley can stay healthy all year. I expect him to be more of a matchup start than a trusted week-to-week choice in the fantasy market.
Defensive Schedule
The Chargers’ run defense has one of the top schedules in 2020. They don’t have any games vs. teams that had a high level of success running the ball last year. Los Angeles has two plus-matchups (NYJ and MIA) and seven other favorable contests (CIN, TB, ATL, DEN X 2, and LV X 2). Even the feeling of multiple winning matchups, I expect most of their opponents to be improved running the ball this season.
Los Angeles has five games (TB, NO, ATL, and KC X 2) against teams expected to pass the ball well in 2020. Based on last year's stats, their defense will have an advantage in four matchups (BUF, NYJ, and DEN X 2), but Denver should be much improved in the passing game this year based on their additions at the wide receiver position.
Defense
LA fell to 18th in rushing yards allowed (1,805) with 15 rushing TDs and nine runs over 20 yards. The Chargers gave up 4.2 yards per carry, which was their lowest rate over the past three seasons (4.9 in 2017 and 4.3 in 2018).
The Chargers worked their way to 5th in passing yards allowed (3,204) with 21 TDs and 11 INTs. Their defense recorded 30 sacks while allowing 41 completions over 20 yards.
DE Joey Bosa
Over 47 games in the NFL, Bosa has 40 sacks while recording double-digit sacks in three different years. In his two full seasons of action, he averaged 68.5 tackles. Last year he regained the bounce in his step as a run defender. Los Angeles drafted him third overall in 2016.
DE Melvin Ingram
Ingram only missed three games over the last five seasons, which led to 43 sacks and an average of 54 tackles per year. Last year he finished with seven sacks, one Int, and five defended passes. He tends to play well vs. the run, but his game did slip in this area in 2019.
DT Linval Joseph
The Chargers added Joseph to their defense in the offseason to help stop the bleeding against the run. He’s a ten-year veteran the league with multiple seasons on his resume as an elite run defender. He’ll chip in with some sacks while trending slightly backward in the pass rush.
DT Justin Jones
In his second year in the league, Jones made 11 starts while missing four games with a shoulder issue. Over 27 career games, he only has a half of a sack while still trailing in his responsibility as a run defender. LA will rotate him on early downs with DT Jerry Tillery, who they drafted in the first round in 2019.
Tillery came into college as an offensive lineman, but he never played a down on the offensive side of the ball. By his sophomore season at Notre Dame, Tillery worked his way into the starting lineup at a defensive tackle. His game improved over his last two years in college, leading to success in run support and adding value in the pass rush. He offers a combination of speed, power, and quickness for his position. His first step is key to his wins. With better hands and improved moves in the pass rush, Tillery could become a beast on the side.
In March of 2019, Tillery had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, which was part of his slow development in his rookie season (17 tackles and two sacks).
LB Denzel Perryman
Perryman missed 16 games in 2017 and 2018 after flashing upside in his rookie year in 2015 when the Chargers drafted him in the second round. Last year he made 14 starts, leading to 68 tackles and one Int. Over his last 30 games, Perryman doesn’t have a sack. His run defense improved over the previous two seasons, but he still misses too many tackles. LA will rotate Perryman with Uchenna Nwosu in 2020.
Los Angeles bought another edge pass rusher with Uchenna Nwosu in the second round in 2018. His game is built on speed and quickness, but Nwosu needs secondary pass-rushing moves to be more effective at the next level. His strength can be neutralized by offensive lineman if caught at the line of scrimmage on the inside. Nwosu needs improvement in run support to earn more snaps on early downs. Over his first two years in the NFL, Nwosu had 59 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
If Murray can hit the ground running, the Chargers have the talent on defense to reach an elite level. He’ll cover a lot of ground in the middle of the field while also feeding in the space created by the Chargers' top two defensive linemen. Murray has the speed and strength to make an impact this year.
LB Drue Tranquill
In his rookie season, Tranquill only had three starts. He played well at times vs. the run while failing to pick up a sack. Tranquill Is built for power and an attacking game when moving forward. His motor rates highly with vision and quickness, but he can get in trouble when asked to change direction or in coverage in a trailing position. Tranquill is undersized (6’2” and 234 lbs.) with not much room for growth in his frame.
CB Chris Harris
Harris has a long history of playing well in coverage while shining the most out of the slot. The Chargers plan on moving him back inside to help improve their overall pass defense. Over nine seasons in the league, Harris has 20 Ints and 88 defended passes. He returned four passes for touchdowns in his career. Harris also adds value in run support.
CB Casey Hayward
Over his first two years with the Chargers, Heyward had 11 interceptions and 22 defended passes, leading to an elite rating in pass coverage. His success led to fewer passes thrown his way in 2018 and 2019. Heyward will give up some TDs and big plays, but he tends to keep his receivers to a low catch rate. His play continues to be an asset in the run game.
S Derwin James
James turned in a beast season in 2018 (105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three Ints, and 13 defended passes) after the Chargers drafted him in the first round. Unfortunately, he missed the first 11 games last year with a broken right foot. James gives LA a third top player in the secondary while owning the skill set to be a top player in all areas.
S Nasir Adderley
Adderley has an underachiever feel with questions with his instincts and understanding play development from the safety position. The Chargers may switch him back to cornerback, where his coverage skills play better when focusing on one player in his responsibilities. Adderley needs to attack as a tackler while avoiding being a looker in the backfield where the QB can lead him into mistakes. Foresight and vision would go a long way in helping him reach a higher level in his career.
In his rookie season, he missed the final 12 games with a hamstring issue while seeing minimal action in the other four games.
There is a lot to like about this defense, and they have the talent across the boards to be a top-five fantasy defense. I love their addition in the drafts and via free agency, which points to improved play vs. the run. Their pass defense already had the talent to defend, which is helped by a short passing window created by their defensive ends.
Fantasy owners in the early draft season have them priced as the 12th defense drafted. I view them as an excellent value in 2020, and their defense will help the Chargers steal some wins.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)