New on SI: 2020 New York Jets Fantasy Team Outlook: Sam Darnold Breakout Looks Unlikely

Coaching Staff

Adam Gase led the

New York Jets to their ninth straight season without a playoff berth. New York finished with a 7-9 in 2019, which was their highest win total since 2015 (10-6). Gase has a 30-34 record in his four years as a head coach for the Dolphins and the Jets with one playoff appearance. He has 15 seasons of NFL experience, with all of his coaching coming on the offensive side of the ball.

Dowell Loggains returns as the offensive coordinator, which is the same position he held over the previous four seasons in Chicago, Miami, and New York. Last year the Jets fell to 32nd in the NFL in offensive yards, which was their third straight season of decline (26th in 2016, 28th in 2017, and 29th in 2018). New York scored only 276 points (31st), which was 57 fewer than the previous season. Loggains won’t survive another season if the Jets don’t improve by a wide margin in 2020.

The Jets brought in Gregg Williams to run the defense after spending 2018 as the Browns defensive coordinator and interim head coach. Williams has been in charge of an NFL defense for 19 seasons. Gregg went 22-34 over four different years as a head coach. In 2019, the Jets improved to seventh in the league in yards allowed (25th in 2018) while shaving 82 points off the scoreboard (16th in points allowed – 359).

Free Agency

The first order of business for the Jets in the offseason was improving their offense. They added a pair of offensive linemen – C Connor McGovern, G Greg Van Roten, and T George Fant. T Brandon Shell signed with Seattle after failing to improve over the last three years.

In his second year as a starter for the Broncos, McGovern worked his way to a league-average player with his best area of growth coming in pass protection. Van Roten earned starting snaps over the last two years for the Panthers, but his game projects a backup option for New York. He’s never been an asset in run blocking while playing in front of Christian McCaffrey in 2018 and 2019.

Fant signed a three-year deal for $30 million in March. He’s never been a full starter in the NFL. Fant will be insurance at left tackle while looking position to start at right tackle.

New York took a flier on WR Breshad Perriman after his success late in the year for Tampa. He’ll replace WR Robby Anderson on the roster who signed with Carolina.

The Jets didn’t bring back RB Ty Montgomery, WR Demaryius Thomas, T Kelvin Beachum, CB Trumaine Johnson, S Rontez Miles, C Ryan Kalil, and RB Bilal Powell. Beachum is the only player who added value last year.

CB Pierre Desir, CB Maurice Canady, and LB Patrick Onwuasor were the top players added to the defense. New York should slide Desir into their starting lineup. He played well in 2018, but wide receivers beat him for too many long plays last year.

Draft

By one metric, the Jets had the best draft in 2020. In the first round of this year’s draft, the Jets invested in T Mekhi Becton. New York hopes that they found a long time Pro Bowler, who should instantly improve the run game. Becton is a beast of a man (6’7” and 364 lbs.). His range should be expansive with his long reach while possessing the footwork to control pass rushers. Becton’s desire to fire after the snap can lead to some poor timing if he misses his mark. Maintaining his weight and overall quickness are the keys to his long term upside.

New York picked up WR Denzel Mims with the 27th selection in the second round. At the goal line in fade or jump ball options, he has the feel of a battler with some outcomes almost looking like a war of contact. In the NFL, Mims needs to be cleaner out of his breaks to create a better rhythm with his quarterback. He can make tough catches, but he doesn’t have that natural snatch the ball with his hands at the high point feel. A slight bobble will be an incompletion most of the time in the pros.

With their two selections in the third round, the Jets added S Ashtyn Davis and LB Jabari Zuniga.

Davis comes to the NFL with plenty of upside. His thinker mentality should improve with more experience. He has cover skills for the safety position with a willingness to fire at oncoming ball carriers. His next step is finding a balance between attack and patience. Davis needs improvement in his vision and timing when making tackles in the open field.

Zuniga looks the part of an explosive player with the talent to attack the quarterback. If given daylight on any play, he has the game to finish while also have an edge if asked to change direction. Zuniga must get stronger to win against top-flight power players. Offenses will game plan to attack him with strength.

New York brought RB La’mical Perine and QB James Morgan with their first to additions in the fourth round.

Perine has the feel of running back that will take the yards given to him, but his feet don’t have the change of direction value needed to create a winning starting edge in the NFL. His best move may be a slight jump-cut through the line of scrimmage where his acceleration has value over a short area. Perine runs with patience and some power, but his game takes a clear step back when faced with no running room and forced to make yards with his quickness from a standstill.

Last year Morgan played through a knee issue, which hurt overall production. Morgan is a big quarterback (6'4" and 230 lbs.) with a live arm. He wants to drive the ball to his receivers, but his mechanics need improvement, which will upgrade his accuracy. Morgan has a long motion while holding the ball at waist level at times, which will lead to many fumbles in the NFL. He doesn’t read defenses well and his rhythm, feel, and touch in the short passing game needs plenty of work.

G Cameron Clarke was New York’s choice with their third pick in the fourth round. Clarke played left tackle in college. His power projects well at guard at the next level. He needs a better plan with his hands to help overcome his shortfall in quickness. Clarke can step up his game vs. top competitors, but his motor doesn’t carry as well from game-to-game.

New York added CB Bryce Hall and P Braden Mann in the fifth and sixth rounds.

Hall hasn’t been able to overcome his shortfall in his movements when back peddling. His game plays well moving forward in zones and handling wide receivers over short areas in the press. Hall lacks the wheels and the movements to cover receivers over the long field. He projects well in the red zone, and I expect growth as a CB3 for New York in his rookie season.

Mann has a big leg with the ability to pin an offense inside the ten-yard line. His next area of improvement needed is adding more height on long kicks to help his coverage team.

Offensive Line

New York fell to 31st in rushing yards (1,257) last year while scoring only six rushing TDs. They gained 3.3 yards per carry with two measly rushes over 20 yards. The Jets finished 27th in passing yards (3,443) with 19 TDs and 16 Ints. Their offensive line allowed 52 sacks and 106 QB hits.

LT Mekhi Becton

The rebuild of the Jets offensive line starts with their rookie first-round draft pick. Becton should stop the bleeding in sacks allowed while being a significant improvement in the run blocking.

LG Alex Lewis

After missing the first three games in 2019 with his recovery from shoulder surgery, Lewis made 12 starts for the Jets. His play in pass protection improved late in the year while never developing into an asset in run blocking. New York signed him to a three-year contract for $18 million in March, which puts him on track to start in 2020. Lewis has a lot to prove going forward.

C Connor McGovern

Over the last two seasons, McGovern started all 32 games for the Broncos. Their offense played well at times in the run game, but lack talent in the passing game. McGovern looks to be a slight negative in run blocking while should a massive improvement in his pass blocking last year. He’s trending toward a league-average player.

RG Greg Van Roten

Van Roten will compete with Brian Winters for the starting right guard job. Van Roten made 27 starts over the past two years for the Panthers. His play was much better in pass blocking while seeing action at left guard. Winters hasn’t played well since 2015 and 2016. He grades as a below-par player in all areas at this point in his career.

RT George Fant

In 2018 as a rotational player for Seattle, Fant showed improvement at right tackle. Last year he started 8 of the 17 games for the Seahawks with some issues in both run and pass blocking. His overall plays did improve in all areas over the final quarter of the regular season while playing left tackle.

The Jets’ offense is coming off a low bar in 2019 with weakness in all areas. They revamped their whole offensive line, but only their left tackle projects to an upper-echelon player. Overall, they moved closer to the league average, which is much better than where they finished last year.

Offensive Schedule

The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).

This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.

2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.

2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.

2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.

New York has a league average schedule for their rushing offense in 2020. They have one favorable game (CLE) based on 2019 data and three mid-tier matchups (KC and MIA X 2). Their two most challenging contests look to be against the Patriots (2) with three other outings (IND and BUF X 2) looking below average.

The Jets have the second most rigid schedule in the NFL for their passing offense. Their season starts with two challenging games (@BUF and SF) followed by six unfavorable games (DEN, LAC, BUF, CLE, and NE X 2) over the final 13 weeks. Their best chance for success throwing the ball should come against the Cardinals.

Offense

New York finished 21st in the NFL in passing attempts (521) and 26th in rushing attempts (383), which contributed to a poor offense. They struggled to sustain drives with minimal big gains. The Jets should improve in all areas in 2020, with their upside tied to the changes on their offensive line.

Here’s a look at the early projections for the Jets, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold

2020 was a rough year for Darnold and the Jets’ offense. After a short Week 1 (175/1), he missed three games with a battle with mononucleosis. Darnold finished with one impact game (293/4) while posting 32 or under passing attempts in eight contests. At this point in his career, Darnold lacks the star power to be a top tier QB in the fantasy market. The Jets struggled to run the ball last year with weakness at the TE position (44/446/6 on 57 targets). 

New York added WR Denzel Mims with the 27th pick in the second round in 2020, which gives the Jets a deep threat with scoring ability. He has volume pass-catcher in WR Jamison Crowder, and the combination of WR Breshad Perriman and TE Chris Herndon should add more length to the passing options in 2020. 

Darnold has the talent to be a league-average QB (4,000 yards and 24 TDs), but this offense has a lot to prove this year. Fantasy owners have him priced as the 24th-drafted quarterback in the early draft season with an ADP of 128. In the first run of the projections, I have Darnold passing for 3,691 yards with 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

James Morgan

Morgan had a chance to play quarterback over four different seasons in college, but only once did he flash any intrigue (2018 at FIU – 2,727 passing yards with 27 TDs and seven Ints). Over 42 career games, he passed for 8,654 yards with 65 TDs and 34 Ints. His completion rate (57.2) was a liability in every season except one (65.3). Morgan will hold a clipboard for many games before getting a chance to play in the NFL.

Other options: David Fales, Mike White

Running Backs

Over the past three years, New York ranked poorly each season in yards per rush (3.98, 4.02, and 3.43). The addition of RB Le’Veon Bell didn’t have the expected impact, but his offensive line was also a significant part of the problem. The Jets had a similar number of targets (107, 102, and 109) to their running backs over the last three years, and Bell did help their catch rate (80.4) in this area in 2019. New York’s running backs gained only 6.79 yards per catch while only scoring four receiving touchdowns over the previous three seasons.

Le’Veon Bell

The quest for a payday in the NFL led to Bell getting $27 million in guaranteed money from the Jets, but he had to be clicking his heels during the year while saying, “there’s no place like Pittsburgh.” He finished the year with a measly 3.2 yards per rush and regression in his yards per catch (7.0). New York gave him 311 touches, leading to 1,250 combined yards or a 36 percent regression in yards (1,946) from 2019. Bell played through shoulder, knee, and ankle issues while missing one game due to an illness.

Bell gained over 2,100 yards in 2014 with 83 catches and 11 TDs, almost 1,900 yards in 2016 with 75 catches, and nine TDs, and over 1,900 yards in 2017 with 85 catches and 11 TDs. Over his six years in the NFL, he averaged 24,05 touches per game.

Tough to get excited here, but Bell will out touch many backs drafted higher than him in 2020. Don’t dismiss as his resume and opportunity give him a chance to rebound with better offensive play. I’m bullish on him this year (1,435 combined yards with ten TDs and 63 catches) compared to his ADP (37 – 19th RB drafted). Buy the expected touches while knowing he has a chance at offering more upside.

Frank Gore

Gore is the running back that keeps on ticking. He’ll start 2020 at age 37 while ranking third in rushing yards (15,347) and rushing attempts (3,548). He gained under 4.0 yards per rush in four of his five previous seasons. Gore scored only three touchdowns over his last 347 touches. Only veteran insurance with no fantasy value on draft day.

La’mical Perine

Over four seasons at Florida, he gained 3,159 combined yards with 30 touches and 72 catches on 565 touches. His best value running the ball came in 2018 (134/826/7)) while setting career highs in catches (40), receiving yards (262), and receiving TDs (5) last year.

His speed (4.62 forty) is below par while showing plenty of strength (22 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine). He works hard with fight in his game. Perine has looker feel in pass protection while thinking rather than knowing where to go to pick up the free-running blitzer. This shortfall looks coachable, and more experience in these situations will help his growth.

The Jets signed RB Frank Gore in mid-May, which pushes Perine a notch down on the depth chart.

John Adams

Last year the Jets carried Adams on their practice squad after picking him off waivers in August from the Eagles. In 2018, he gave Philly two solid outings (22/84/1 and 20/85) as an injury replacement while starting five games. Adams is a big back (6’2” and 225 lbs.) with a power runner feel. With only eight touches last year, he’s nothing more than a waiver wire player in 2020 while needing some injuries to increase his playing time.

Other options: Kenneth Dixon, Trenton Cannon, Jalin Moore

Wide Receivers

The Jets’ wide receivers accounted for 70 percent of their passing yards in 2019. They caught 59.8 percent of their team's completions, five percent more than 2018 (54.8). Their wide receivers continue to trail the top teams in the league in yards per catch (12.50) and TDs (12).

Jamison Crowder

The Jets gave Crowder the most targets (122) of his career, which helped him set a career-high in catches (78). He finished 26th in WR scoring (197.7) in PPR leagues despite not gaining over 100 yards receiving in any game. His season started with massive targets (17) and a great showing (14/99) in Week 1. Crowder played well over a three-game stretch midseason (8/83/1, 5/81/1, 5/76/1) while offering one other impact showing (6/90/2). His downside showed in eight additional weeks when he combined for only 22 catches for 180 yards and no TDs on 44 targets. Inconsistent WR3 with more competition for targets in 2020 with WR Breshad Perriman and rookie WR Denzel Mims added to the roster.

His early ADP (114) falls in line with my expected regression and initial projections (75/917/5). More steady than explosive with any growth being directly tied to the Jets improving as a passing team.

Denzel Mims

Over the last three seasons at Baylor, Mims caught 182 passes for 2,901 yards and 28 touchdowns with his best success coming in his sophomore (61/1087/8) and senior (66/1020/12) years.

He’ll have an edge for sure in the deep passing game where he has the wheels to win over the long field and separate after the catch. His rhythm in space showed more explosiveness on slants and fast-moving routes. Mims comes to the NFL with size (6’3” and 205 lbs.) and speed (4.38 forty). He labored through the 20-yard shuttle (4.43) but showed explosiveness in the three cone-drill (6.66). Overall, Mims needs to clean up his route running while adding more fight to his game. His release could be an issue when pressed over the short areas of the field where his speed has less value.

I have him ranked 47th out of the gate with 57 catches for 768 yards and five touchdowns, which makes him a value opportunity based on his early ADP (213). This year he’ll battle WR Breshad Perriman for the top outside wide receiver role in New York.

Breshad Perriman

Over his first three seasons, after getting drafted in the first round in 2015, Perriman caught only 59 of his 126 targets for 916 yards and five TDs. His playing time was minimal last year over the first 11 games (11/139/1 on 32 targets). After a couple of injuries to Tampa's wide receivers, Perriman played the best ball of his career. He caught 25 passes for 506 yards and five TDs on 37 targets in five games, which delivered WR1 stats in PPR leagues. His excellent finish to the year (5/113/3, 7/102, and 5/134/1) earned him a one-year deal for $8 million for the Jets. Tempting, but a fantasy owner has to keep in mind his career catch rate (48.7). A risk/reward player on a new team, pointing to a trap in fantasy drafts. Perriman saw his ADP in the high-stakes fall to 148 after the 2020 NFL Draft.

Other options: Vyncint Smith, Josh Doctson, Braxton Berrios, Jehu Chesson, Lawrence Cager

Tight Ends

With TE Chris Herndon injured in 2019, the Jets only looked the tight ends’ way 57 times, which was more than a forty percent draft in opportunity from the two previous years. New York’s tight ends tend to gain short yards per catch (10.14 in 2019) with a chance to score in about one out of every four games.

Chris Herndon

Herndon drew some attention in the 2019 early fantasy draft season as a possible back-end TE1. He showed some upside in a few games (4/42/1, 4/62, 7/57, and 6/82/1) over the final 11 weeks in 2018, but a four-game suspension paired with a hamstring issue, and a broken rib led to a lost 2019 season. Last year the Jets ranked near the bottom of the league in TE production (44/467/6). His replacement Ryan Griffin did flash in two games (4/66/2 and 5/109/1). Possible playable value in four to five games, but Herndon needs Darnold to play better this season.

Other options: Ryan Griffin, Daniel Brown, Ross Travis

Kicker

Brett Maher

There was a lot to like about Maher in his first year in the NFL at age 29. He boomed six of his seven kicks from 50 yards or more in 2018, which led to him making 29 of his 36 overall chances. Last year his value continued from long range (4-for-8) while having a sharp drop-off success in field goals (16-for-22 – 72.7 percent). Maher has only missed one of his 69 extra-point tries. The Jets scored 31 touchdowns last year while creating only 28 field attempts—a hot and cold kicker who has a lot to prove 2020.

Defensive Schedule

The Jets face two teams (SF and SEA) that ran the ball well in 2019. They have three other mid-tier matches (IND and BUF X 2). New York should have an edge against Miami (2) while their contests vs. the Rams and Chargers look favorable.

Over the first seven weeks in 2020, the Jets have five games (IND, DEN, ARI, and BUF X 2) vs. teams that struggled to pass the ball. From that point on, New York has a tougher schedule. Their defense will be tested in three contests (LAC, LAR, and KC) in the passing game, but the Chargers have questions at quarterback in 2020.

Defense

New York finished 2nd defending the run (1,391) with 12 TDs and only eight runs gaining over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 3.3 yards per carry. Their pass defense ranked 17th (3,779 yards) while allowing 25 TDs and picking up 12 Ints. They finished with 35 sacks.

DT Steve McLendon

Over the past four years, McLendon worked as a rotational early run stopper for the Jets. He’ll start the season at age 34 with minimal value in sacks (2.5).

DE Quinnen Williams

In his rookie season after getting drafted in the first round, Williams saw action in 13 games, leading to 28 tackles and 2.5 sacks. He finished with the most value in run support. His quickness, hands, and vision grade well while offering a disrupter mentality. He puts himself in a position to make plays, but Williams needs to get stronger to defeat top offensive linemen and learn to make an impact vs. double teams. Quinnen is still learning, which is part of his upside, intrigued.

DE Henry Anderson

After playing well in 2018 (35 tackles and seven sacks), Anderson lost his way last year. He finished with only one sack and regression against the run. Anderson has only been a part-time player in his career.

LB C.J. Mosley

In his first year with the Jets, Mosley missed 14 games with a groin injury. He has over 100 tackles in four of his five seasons with the Ravens, but he only has 1.5 sacks over his last 47 games. Mosley is a high-volume player with an edge defending the run.

LB Avery Williamson

Williamson missed all of 2019 with a torn ACL in his right knee. He played well over the previous two seasons. His best value comes vs. the run. He finished with a career-high 120 tackles with three sacks and six defended passes in 2018.

LB Jordan Jenkins

Over the last two seasons, Jenkins picked up 15 sacks. His play vs. the run has been a problem in back-to-back years.

LB Jabari Zuniga

New York should use Zuniga on passing downs in his rookie season. His passing rushing skills grade well with the talent to show growth earlier in his career.

CB Pierre Desir

Desir has only once started all 16 games in his six years in the NFL. He tends to give up big plays with hot and cold value in coverage. The second cornerback spot is full of risk with no definable starter.

S Jamal Adams

The best player on defense for New York is Adams. He played great in all areas over the past two years after getting drafted sixth overall in 2017. Last season he showed growth in the pass rush (6.5 sacks).

S Marcus Maye

In his two seasons as a starter, Maye offered no helps in the pass rush with neutral value in the run support. The Jets added him in the second round in 2017.

Team Defense

Overall, this defense has three possibly four talented players that project upside. They should have front runner value against the run, but their cornerbacks are going to have issues covering wide receivers in a top offense. More a second fantasy defense with matchup value.

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New on SI: 2020 New England Patriots Fantasy Team Outlook: Finding an Edge in the New Unknown

SI Fantasy's Team Outlook series from high-stakes legend Shawn Childs aims to break down the New England Patriots to evaluate the offense, defense, coaches and everyone in between with a fantasy-slanted analysis.

Coaching Staff

Bill Belichick returns to the

New England Patriots for his 21st season. His road to success will be much harder with QB Tom Brady no longer on the team. Belichick has a 237-83 record in New England with six Super Bowls and three other trips to the big game. The Patriots are 30-11 in the postseason since 2001. Belichick needs 56 wins to pass Don Shula for the most in NFL history.

New England won the AFC East in each of the past 11 seasons (16 of 17 years). They have ten or more wins in every season since 2003.

New England fell to 15th in yards gained, which was their lowest showing since 2002. They fell to 7th in points scored after nine straight seasons with a top-four ranking.

Josh McDaniels returns for another season as he looks positioned to take over as head coach when Bill Belichick retires. McDaniels worked in New England’s system for 16 seasons after a brief two-year run as head coach for the Broncos (11-17) and one season as the offensive coordinator for the Rams.

The Patriots finished with the best defense in the league in points allowed (225) and yards allowed. They improved by 20 spots from 2019 in yards allowed (21st).

New England will go without a defensive coordinator for the second straight season. Belichick handled the job in 2019, and he will again this year.

Free Agency

The loss of Brady can’t be replaced in 2020. New England had too many questions at the receiver position, which may have been part of Brady's departure.

The Patriots’ defense lost LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins, LB Elandon Roberts, and DT Danny Shelton.

New England signed S Adrian Phillips, DT Beau Allen, S Cody Davis, and LB Brandon Copeland to their defense.

Their offense didn’t have any other significant changes in any direction.

Draft

After trading out of the first round in the 2020 NFL Draft, New England selected S Kyle Duggar and LB Josh Uche in the second round.

Duggar comes to the NFL with an explosive skill set while owning an edge in size (6’1” and 217 lbs.). He played at a small school (Lenoir-Rhyne). His playmaking skill set will have further growth at the next level once he improves his reads on the quarterback. Duggar should develop into a beast with his best value coming when attacking the line of scrimmage. His next step is expanding his vision to help create better timing in his pursuit.

The Patriots bought into Uche’s athletic ability with the hopes more playing time improves his feel for developing plays. His attacking style plays well when moving forward with a chance to add value in coverage. Even with strength, Uche will be stalemated on interior rushes if faced with a big body between him and the quarterback.

New England pushed again on the defensive side of the ball with their first pick in the third round (LB Anfernee Jennings). He came to college with a pass-rushing skill set that was built on power. Jennings plays with pop, and the vision to knock down passes at the line of scrimmage. His foundation skill set grades well, but his ceiling may be limited when asked to retreat on his first press to the line of scrimmage.

The next order of business for the Patriots was adding a pulse to their tight position with two additions in the third round – Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene.

Asiasi battled his body early in his career at UCLA. Last year his commitment to the game helped him make a significant step forward. Asiasi looked good, making plays downfield with some open field ability. He played faster than expected, and his hands and route running played up. Asiasi needs improvement as a blocker.

The combination of speed and strength for Keene makes him a unique option in this year’s draft. He plays with a fullback’s mentality while being tough to cover out of the backfield or in the slot. Keene has work to do in his route running if he wants to develop into a viable pass-catching option at tight end.

The Patriots may look back on their selection of K Justin Rohrwasser in the fifth round. At this point in the draft, New England still had a shot at QB Jake Fromm who had ball-control game management skills.

Going bare at quarterback and selecting a kicker would seem like a significant mistake in the fantasy world.

Rohrwasser comes to the NFL with a big leg, but his resume has some flaws. The Patriots have had a great run with kickers over the past two decades. They need Rohrwasser to improve his technique.

With three of their final four picks in the third and fourth rounds, the Patriots added three offensive lineman – G Mike Onwenu, G Justin Herron, and C Dustin Woodard.

Onwenu should be a good fit for a quick-hitting power run game. He’ll own his small piece of real estate on the field if tested with a one-on-one fight. His first step limits his overall value and his ability to have follow-through with his blocks at the second level of the defense. Pass-rushers will test him in space and with counters.

Herron relies on his footwork to gain position in his blocks, but his hands are trailing. He has a nimble, athletic feel that should offer more upside with better technique and coaching. Out of the gate, Herron will struggle with power despite being in the game with his strength.

Woodard looks the part of an athletic center with quickness, but he comes to the NFL undersized (6’2” and 285 lbs.). He needs to improve his base while letting some plays come to him. At times, his quest for fire after the snap puts him out of position and at risk.

The Patriots added LB Cassh Maluia with their third selection in the sixth round. Big bodies in the NFL will challenge his game. Maluia adds the most value when having a clean run at the ball carrier with speed to cover his side of the field. Without better strength and improved vision, Maluia projects as a special teams player.

Offensive Line

The Patriots fell to the 18th place finish in rushing yards (1,703) with their ball carriers gaining only 3.8 yards per carry with 17 TDs and six runs over 20 yards. New England slipped to 8th in passing yards (3,961) with 25 TDs and nine Ints. Their offensive line allowed 28 sacks and 90 QB hits despite losing their left tackle for half the season.

LT Isaiah Wynn

After getting drafted 23rd in 2019, Wynn blew out his left Achilles in mid-August, costing him his rookie season. Last year a toe issue led to another eight missed games. He struggled in run blocking while playing well in pass protection. Coming into the NFL, Wynn offered value in both run and pass blocking while falling short of NFL measurables for the left tackle position. The talent to be an edge, but he may need some time to develop at the next level.

LG Joe Thuney

Thuney has experience as well at tackle, but he’s just finding his way at guard. In his fourth year in the league after getting drafted in the third round, Thuney continued to show growth in pass-blocking with neutral value in the run game. His game is built on attacking quickly with an edge in speed and quickness. Thuney started 16 games in all four of his seasons. He is an improving player who will be helped by a better player at left tackle.

C David Andrews

Andrew is another player from the University of Georgia who was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015. In 2019, he missed the whole year due to a blood clot in his lung. Over his previous three seasons, Andrews started 46 of 48 games. His pass blocking is now considered an edge, but he did regress to his previous levels in the run game in 2018. Overall, Andrew is a neutral player with enough on his resume to expect more growth going forward.

RG Shaquille Mason

Mason signed a five-year, $50 million extension in 2018. Run blocking has always been his strength, but New England did regress in the run game last year. Mason tends to be an asset in pass protection. His career started in 2015 at left guard. The switch to his new position led to growth in his game.

RT Marcus Cannon

Cannon has only once started all 16 games in his nine years with the Patriots. In 2016, Cannon played great in his only full season of work. Over the last three years, he’s been a league-average player at best while missing 13 games. I expect him to be a placeholder until incumbent Yodny Cajuste, who missed his rookie season with a quad injury after getting drafted in the third round in 2019.

The loss of Tom Brady and his quick release may lead to a significant regression in the play of the Patriots’ offensive line. The run game was a mess last year, even with production in touchdowns. On paper and based on their previous success, New England's offensive line grades above-average.

Offensive Schedule

The data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).

This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.

2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.

2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.

2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league-average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.

New England has three below-par matchups (BAL and NYJ X 2) for their rushing offense and three other mid-tier games (LV and BUF X 2). Their best success on the ground should come against Miami (2) and Kansas City.

The Patriots start the year with three decent matchups (MIA, SEA, and LV) for their passing offense. Over the next 13 games, they have two winnable games (HOU and ARI) plus five tough contests (SF, BAL, LAC, and BUF X 2). Overall, New England has the ninth most challenging passing schedule.

Offense

Ideally, New England would like to be productive in the passing game while having the talent to control the clock late with their run game. The change at quarterback in 2020 will lead to a game management approach with the hopes that their defense keeps this in games.

Here’s a look at the early projections for New England, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:

Quarterbacks

QB Jarrett Stidham, NE

Over three years in college, Stidman passed for 7,217 yards with 48 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Over his final two years in college, Stidham minimized the damage in interceptions (11) while lacking a top opportunity in the passing game (27.4 passes per game). His best year came in 2017 (3,158 passing yards and 18 TDs). Even with 103 rushes that season, he gained only 153 yards (1.5 yards per rush) with four TDs.

Filling the shoes of Tom Brady will be a tall task for any QB. Last summer, Stidham flashed in the preseason (819 combined yards with four TDs and one Int). He completed 67.8 percent of his passes while gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt, Surprisingly, his legs (17/88) played better than expected. I’m intrigued by his skill set and upside, but he may need some time to develop into a viable starting QB in the NFL. For now, just a player to follow until we see success on the field.

QB Brian Hoyer, NE

Hoyer looks like a veteran insurance policy for the Patriots. Over his last 12 starts over four seasons, he went 1-11. Over this span plus games off the bench, Hoyer passed for 3,111 yards with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Other options: Brian Lewerke, J’Mar Smith

Running Backs

Here’s a look at the running back data for the Patriots over the last three seasons:

The Patriots' running backs averaged about 166 targets over the past three years, which led to 123 catches for 1,032 yards and eight passing TDs. Their backs lost almost a half a yard per carry in 2019 while maintaining value in rushing touchdowns (15.3 per year).

The downside here is that New England tends to rotate in multiple running backs.

RB Sony Michel, NE

The excitement of Michel being an upside runner on early downs is dwindling. He continued to offer no value in the passing game. Over 456 rushes in his NFL career, Michel gained over 20 yards on just seven plays. His yards per carry dropped to 3.7, painting him as a grinder back going forward. Last year Michel lacked the wheels to make big plays when reaching the second level of the defense. He averaged 16.2 touches per game. Trending down, which points to RB Damien Harris stealing plenty of his chances on early downs. A downgrade at QB is also a negative.

His early ADP (97) paints him as a late RB3 in PPR leagues. Michel is projected for 770 combined yards with six touchdowns and 11 catches.

RB James White, NE

White wasn't nearly as impactful in 2019 after finishing seventh in RB scoring (277.1) in PPR leagues in 2018. His one impact game (177 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches) came in Week 13, but White didn’t score over 16.0 fantasy points in any other contest. Last season, the Patriots completed 121 passes for 1,133 yards and six TDs to the running back position. With Tom Brady no longer behind center, New England will have some decline in RB chances in the passing game. Only a steady short-term injury or bye week cover heading into the draft season.

His initial draft value comes just behind Michel with a step back in his early projections (640 combined yards with four TDs and 54 catches.

RB Damien Harris, NE

Harris has the "it factor" an NFL team should be looking for in a lead back. He gives off the appearance of a bigger back than his size (5'11" and 213 lbs.). His first step acceleration after downshifting in tight quarters gives him many winning plays. Harris drives through contact with a unique feel for finding more open field. He tests defenses when reaching the second level with his vision and power. His pass-catching opportunity was short due to Josh Jacobs shining brighter in this area in Alabama. Harris doesn't fumble, and his game grades well in pass protection. Last year New England gave him only four touches while battling a hamstring injury over the final seven weeks. Breakout potential.

Other options: Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, J.J. Taylor

Wide Receivers

Last year New England struggled to find a viable second wide receiver. Phillip Dorsett finished second on the team in catches (29) and receiving yards (397). Despite little produced behind WR Julian Edelman, the Patriots’ wide receivers had growth in catches (219), receiving yards (2,552), and targets (367).

WR Julian Edelman, NE

Edelman has been a great warrior for the Patriots and is coming off his second-best fantasy season (100/1117/6). His chief left the pow wow, pointing to regression in his opportunity. He had a floor of six catches in ten contests in 2019, but the Patriots’ fading offense led to a quiet final four games (13 catches for 137 yards and no TDs on 23 targets). Edelman averaged 6.4 catches for 70 yards and 0.39 TDs over his previous 83 games.

Fantasy drafters priced him as the 39th wide receiver off the board in PPR leagues in the early draft season with an ADP of 101. Fluctuating player based on who earns the starting job at QB. I have him projected for 81 catches for 901 yards and five touchdowns.

WR N’Keal Harry, NE

New England fans came away from 2019 wondering if Harry would be a stud or a dud. In his limited playing time last year, he struggled to get on the same page with QB Tom Brady, which led to him catching only half (12) of his targets (24). Harry missed the first nine games with his recovery from his right ankle injury. In his seven games played, he gained fewer than 30 yards receiving while failing to catch over three passes in any week. Talented player, but the Patriots’ offense is full of cloudiness this year. Viable flier as WR6 if the summer reports remain positive.

There are lots of moving parts here, starting with the quarterback. My conservative projections for Harry in his sophomore season are 52 catches for 677 yards and four TDs. He has an ADP of 168 as the 61st wide receiver in mid-May in the high-stakes market.

WR Mohamed Sanu, NE

Over his last four seasons, Sanu has a floor of 59 catches. His game looked rather dull (26/207/1) with New England while gaining only 8.0 yards per catch (8.8 on the year). He gained fewer than 30 yards with three catches or fewer in 10 of his final 11 games. Sanu had surgery in February to repair an issue with a high ankle sprain that bothered him over since late November. His best season came in 2018 (882 combined yards with four TDs and 66 catches). Sanu may start the year as the WR2 for the Patriots if WR N’Keal Harry doesn’t hit the ground running. Below a replacement level floor at this point in his career while lacking a playable ceiling.

WR Marqise Lee, NE

Lee will try to reinvent his career with the Patriots after missing most of the past two seasons with a torn ACL in his left knee and a left shoulder issue in 2019. Lee flashed a possession skill set in 2016 (63/851/3), but he’s failed to live up to expectations after getting drafted in the second round in 2014. Waiver wire player if the Patriots show a pulse in their passing game in 2020, and Lee works himself into a WR3 role.

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE

In his rookie season, Meyer caught 26 of his 41 targets for 359 yards over 15 games. In his only start, he gained 74 yards with four catches on nine targets. Meyers played well in Week 6 (5/47) and Week 7 (5/47) when he caught all nine of his targets off the bench. Last preseason with Jarrett Stidham behind center for most plays, Meyers caught 20 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns.

In his junior season at North Carolina State, he finished with 92 catches for 1,047 yards and four TDs. Meyers runs good routes, and his hands graded well, coming out of college. There’s intrigue here if he earns a starting role.

Other options: Damiere Byrd, Gunner Olszewski, Devin Ross, Quincy Adeboyejo

Tight Ends

The decline in production for the Patriots’ TEs started in 2018. That season Rob Gronkowski (47/682/3) played in 13 games, but he finished with only 5.5 targets per game. In 2019, New England struggled to find opportunities for their tight ends, leading to only 37 catches for 419 yards and two TDs on 53 targets.

TE Devin Asiasi, NE

Asiasi looked in better shape in 2019, after weighing in at almost 280 earlier in his college career. He showed the talent to make plays (44/641/4 on 70 targets – 14.6 yards per catch) at all three levels of the defense. His best value appears to be when moving forward with the ability to sit down vs. zone coverage. Asiasi loses some separation when asked to work back to the ball out of breaks over the field's short areas. His hands should be assets, and he offers deceiving speed and quickness downfield. Asiasi grades as a neutral option in the blocking game, which will improve with better foundation skills. The Patriots have a big void at TE, which gives Asiasi a chance to be semi-productive in his rookie year. Player to follow with the opportunity to develop into a TE2 option in fantasy leagues.

TE Dalton Keene, NE

Over three seasons at Virginia Tech, Keene caught 59 of his 70 targets for 748 yards and eight TDs. His best opportunity and production came in 2018 (28/341/3). The Patriots will look to use him out of the backfield or on movement plays at tight end. His next step is developing his pass routes, which will help improve his playing time.

Other options: Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo, Jake Burt

Kicker

K Justin Rohrwasser, NE

Over two seasons at Marshall, Rohwasser made 33 of his 42 field goals (78.6 percent) while showing growth (18-for-21) in his senior year. His college career started at the University of Rhode Island, where he saw limited field goal chances (15-for-20) over two seasons. Before last year, Rohwasser only made three of his ten kicks from forty yards or more (no tries over 50 yards). The Patriots’ kicker typically ranks in the top-ten, but the change at quarterback points to a regression in scoring. Rohrwasser improved in 2019, but his resume is short. Only a flier and he may not win the job over the summer.

Defensive Schedule

In their division, the Patriots have four games (NYJ X 2 and MIA X 2) against teams that struggled to run the ball in 2019. New England also has three contests (KC, LAR, and LAC) that ranked below the league average rushing the ball. Their biggest struggles against the run will come against the Ravens and the 49ers.

Over the final 12 games in 2020, the Patriots face seven opponents (DEN, BAL, ARI, BUF X 2, and NYJ X 2) that ranked poorly last year passing the ball. Denver and Arizona should be improved, and the Bills and Jets added help at wide receiver in the draft or through free agency. New England will be tested in the passing game by Kansas City. I expect the Rams and the Chargers to regress from last year’s stats in the passing game.

Defense

The Patriots allowed 4.2 yards per rush in 2019, but game score led to only 22.8 rushing attempts, and the 7th ranking in rushing yards allowed (1,528). Their run defense tightened up in the red zone leading to only seven rushing TDs. They gave up six runs over 20 yards, but four of those plays gained over 40 yards.

New England finished 2nd defending the pass with QBs passing for 2,886 yards with 13 TDs and 25 Ints. Their defense had only 47 sacks.

CB Stephon Gilmore

In his third year with Patriots, Gilmore set a career-high in interceptions (6) while returning two for touchdowns. Over the past two years, he allowed fewer than a 50 percent completion rate while ranking high in defended passes (20 each year). Gilmore remains a top player in coverage, but opponents continue to test him in the passing game. His play in run support in 2019 did regress.

CB Jason McCourty

In his career, McCourty has shown risk in multiple years, which was the case for him in 2018. Last year he missed four games and a minimal role in two other games. McCourty held receivers to a career-low in yards per catch with no TDs allowed. Only a league-average player for me who was helped by his supporting cast in 2019.

CB J.C Jackson

Jackson played well in coverage off the bench. In his 28 games of action, he already has eight interceptions and 16 defended passes. Jackson minimizes the damage in touchdowns with receivers catching a low percent of passes against him. In 2019, he started the last seven games (including the playoffs) with Jason McCourty banged up.

S Devin McCourty

The Patriots re-signed McCourty for another two seasons in March for $23 million. He continues to be one of the better players in the league at his positions with value in coverage, tackling, and run support. Before last year (one TD allowed), McCourty would give up some TDs. His tackles (58) came in at a career-low level in 2019 while having a spike in interceptions (5).

S Kyle Duggar

Duggar projects as an impact player while expected to take over at free safety once Devin McCourty hangs up his spikes for the Patriots. Duggar should see plenty of action in his rookie season with the talent to make plays all over the field. His most considerable risk early in his career may be in coverage.

New England should fill the strong safety position in 2020 with Patrick Chung and Adrian Phillips. Chung struggled in all areas last year, and he did have an off-the-field incident. When at his best, Chung can help in coverage while being a steady tackler. Phillips will look to regain his 2018 form with the Chargers (94 tackles and nine defended passes) after missing nine games last year.

LB Dont'a Hightower

Hightower can no longer be considered a top player at linebacker. His play vs. the run faded over his last four seasons. He saw a rebound in his success rushing the quarterback (5.5 sacks) and tackles (71). Hightower will give up some big plays in the passing game and TDs.

LB Chase Winovich

In his rookie season off the bench, Winovich picked up 5.5 sacks and 26 tackles. He comes into the league with a linebacker’s frame. His high motor and first step quickness will create edges vs. the run and rushing the QB. Winovich’s next step is improving his field vision while learning a better feel for the developing play. His style works best when attacking the line of scrimmage, which may lead to some early weakness in pass coverage. Winovich should see a bump in playing time in 2020.

The Patriots Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche can be productive in their rookie seasons. Both players will add value to the pass rush. Uche should see the most playing time thanks to some value in pass coverage.

DT Lawrence Guy

In each season with New England, Guy set a career-high in tackles (58, 59, and 61). He made his last 80 starts while offering minimal upside rushing the quarterback. His best play tends to come vs. the run.

DT Adam Butler

Over the last three seasons, Butler worked as a rotational player with improving value in the pass rush. He set a career-high in sacks (6) in 2019 while inching forward defending the run.

DE Deatrich Wise

Last year Wise didn’t play well, which led to the lowest number of snaps in his three-year career. He flashed pass-rushing value in his rookie season while never being an asset in run support.

Team Defense

The Patriots’ defense played great last year, and they added three more players over the first three rounds of this year’s draft. Their secondary remains their strong suit. New England should be improved at the second level of the defense, and they want to rush the quarterback with their linebackers. I don’t see any impact players on the defensive line. I expect regression vs. the run and game score should lead to deterioration in all areas in 2020. Even with a top 2019 billing on defense, this defense falls a few spots in the draft ranking this year.

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New on SI: 2020 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Team Outlook: New Look Offense Has Something to Prove in Wide-Open AFC East

SI Fantasy's Team Outlook series from high-stakes legend Shawn Childs aims to break down the Miami Dolphins to evaluate the offense, defense, coaches and everyone in between with a fantasy-slanted analysis.

Miami Dolphins

Coaching Staff

After a slow start (0-7) in his rookie season as a head coach, Flores saved his job by winning five of his final nine games. The

Miami Dolphins started the year by being outscored 162 to 26 over the first four contests.

Flores worked in New England’s system for 15 years with a variety of jobs. Over the last eight seasons with the Patriots, he worked on the defensive side of the ball as a defensive assistant, safeties coach, and linebackers coach. Flores has been a part of four Super Bowl winnings teams and seven AFC Championships.

After retiring for three years, Miami coaxed Chad Gailey into taking over their offensive for 2020. He struggled over his five seasons as a head coach (34-46) while making the playoffs in 1998 and 1999 for the Cowboys. Gailey coached in the NFL for 26 seasons, with nine years coming as an offensive coordinator.

Last year Miami ranked 25th in points scored (306) and 27th in offensive yards, which was an improvement from 2018 (30th in points scored – 319 and 31st in offensive yards).

Josh Boyer takes over as the defensive coordinator after working last year as a cornerbacks coach while handling the defensive pass game responsibilities. He worked with Brian Flores in New England for 13 seasons.

The Dolphins allowed a league-high 494 points, which was 61 more than 2018. They also slipped a notch in yards allowed (30th).

Free Agency

Their big signing in the offseason was CB Bryon Jones, who ranked highly in coverage over the past two seasons for the Cowboys. Jones picked up over $50 million in guaranteed money over a five-year deal.

The Dolphins added four players (LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Shaq Lawson, LB Elandon Roberts, and C Ted Karras) that played for division foes in 2019. Van Noy showed growth in his production over his three and a half seasons for New England. Lawson helped the Bills to a successful season on defense in 2020. He is a former first-round draft pick (2016) who showed improvement rushing the quarterback last year. Roberts saw his opportunity slide to a backup role in 2019 after playing at a league-average level this previous season.

Injuries on the offensive line in New England led to Karras earning a full time starting job for the first time in his career. He projects as a starter for Miami while needing to clean up his risk in pass protection.

They also signed G Ereck Flowers. His path to the Dolphins came via underwhelming seasons for the Giants, the Jaguars, and the Redskins. DE Emmanuel Ogbah made the jump for the penthouse (Chiefs) to the outhouse (Miami) in the offseason. He missed the second half of 2019 with a pectoral injury after being on pace to set a career-high in sacks.

Miami decided to invest in RB Jordan Howard to improve the power run game. They also acquired RB Matt Breida in a deal during the 2020 NFL Draft. Breida adds speed to the running back positions with some pass-catching value.

Draft

Over the last couple of years, the struggles for Miami led to them having five draft picks over the first two rounds in the 2020 NFL Draft.

They hopefully secured a franchise quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) with the fifth overall selection. Miami did their best to help his pass protection by adding T Austin Jackson (1.18) and T Robert Hunt (2.7).

Tagovailoa shows much more upside as a runner if asked to do so. His pocket movements under duress have a kamikaze feel at times, which may lead to some bad hits at the next level. When given a clean pocket and length to his passing window, his feel, accuracy, and velocity look top-notch. Tagovailoa makes good reads with the arm to stick a ball into tight coverage. He’ll be dangerous inside the ten-yard line with his legs while being expected to extend drives in the run game. Tagovailoa throws the ball well on the move.

Jackson should slide into the starting lineup at left tackle. His movements project well while needing to improve his hands and technique with his footwork. Jackson comes to the NFL with plenty of size (6’5” and 322 lbs.) with an athletic feel. He plays with power and quickness.

Hunt is a second big framed (6’5” and 323 lbs.) offensive lineman. Miami would like him to develop into the top option at right tackle. He projects well in the run game with the talent to be a beast once his footwork improves.

CB Noah Igbinoghene was the other choice in the first round. In your face type of cornerback, that continues to develop his craft. Igbinoghene is a former wide receiver with a short resume of experience at his position. He plays with strength and fight, but his hip flips and backpedal could get him trouble vs. top wide receivers in the deep passing game. His next step is developing his instincts rather than being a thinker, which can lead to a missed step and a losing play.

The Dolphins landed DT Raekwon Davis and S Brandon Jones in the second and third rounds.

Davis showed first-round talent early in his college career. He struggled to improve over the last two years, leading to questions about his motor and commitment to the game. Davis should be a pure run stopper with pass-rush traits if/when he develops his thought process attacking the quarterback and improve his first step of the line of scrimmage.

Jones plays the game hard with an attacking mentality, but his overall traits can’t make up for his shortcomings in physical skills. His feel for play development puts him a tick behind his responsibilities at times, and he lacks the speed to make up for his mistakes in coverage. The short field should be his friend while being challenged when asked to face top receivers in the deep passing game. I expect him to a better player when moving toward the line of scrimmage than away from it.

Miami shifted back to the offensive line in the fourth round (G Solomon Kindley). The theme for the Dolphins and their o-line in this draft is power and size. Kindley checks in at 6’3” and 337 pounds. His game is all about the fight over his small area of the field. He can’t overcome his lack of quickness if tested outside his body. Kindley needs to improve his drop and drive to gain better leverage at the point of contact.

With their final four addition over the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds, the Dolphins took a swing on DE Jason Strowbridge, LB Curtis Weaver, LS Blake Ferguson, and WR Malcolm Perry.

Strowbridge offers a physical presence with flashes of pass-rushing ability. His downfall tends to be his quickness, which trails his plan and hands. Sometimes his decision making after the snap puts him out of position to finish as play. More of a rotational player with his best of seeing the field coming in the pass rush.

Weaver looks to be a pass down rusher while being a tweener in size (6’2’ and 265 lbs.). He plans to win off the snap and his eyes looking to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Weaver can get stymied vs. physical offensive lineman, and his game takes a hit when asked to retreat for his initial plan.

Perry lacks size (5’9” and 186 lbs.), speed (4.6 forty), and strength (ten reps in the bench press at the NFL combined), but he plays hard with intelligence and fight to his game. His best chance at playing time will come in the return game or out of the slot.

Offensive Line

Miami ranked last in the NFL in rushing attempts (349) in 2019, leading to the 32nd ranking in rushing yards (1,156) with ten rushing TDs. Their offensive line allowed 58 sacks and 147 QB hits. Somehow, the Dolphins climbed to 12th in passing yards (3,804) with 22 TDs and 18 Ints.

LT Austin Jackson

Last year Miami had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL with disaster downside at each position. Jackson should be an instant upgrade at left tackle. He has to be an upgrade in run blocking, and his game projects well in pass protection. Jackson will make mistakes, but he should improve over time.

LG Ereck Flowers

The Giants drafted Flowers in the first round in 2015, but he failed to make an impact over three-plus seasons while playing left tackle. Washington shifted him to left guard last year, which led to better play in pass protection. His run blocking has been an issue over the previous three seasons. Flowers should be a slight upgrade after the position switch last season.

C Ted Karras

In his first season as a starter for the Patriots, Karras gave up pressure to the quarterback up the middle. He did minimize the damage in sacks, which helped Tom Brady get the ball out quickly on most plays. Overall, his run blocker came in at about the league average.

RG Michael Deiter

Last year Deiter didn’t play well in his rookie season after getting drafted in the third round in 2019. The addition of Ereck Flowers should push him to right guard. His game has risk vs. power defenders in pass protection. It’s almost like his value takes a step back when the bully gets bullied. Deiter works hard, but his upside is limited. His experience with multiple positions helps his playable value in his second year in the league. Deiter has a lot to prove in 2020 if he wants to be in the starting lineup every day.

RT Robert Hunt

Just like Austin Jackson, Hunt should replace a weak link in the starting lineup at right tackles. He’ll have his growing pains, but his game should improve over time. Hunt looks more advanced in run blocking at this point of his career.

This offensive line of full of wild cards, but they have a low bar to replace the losing production in 2019. Even with a slow start, the Dolphins’ talent on their offensive line should be much better this year with the best play coming over the second half of the season.

Offensive Schedule

The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).

This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.

2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.

2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.

2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.

Miami has two tough matchups for their rushing offense against the Jets, which come over three weeks sandwiched between a bye week. They also have five other mid-tier contests (LV, BUF X 2, and NE X 2) against teams that ranked below the league average defending the run in 2019. Their other two favorable games for their run game come against the Jaguars and the Bengals.

The Dolphins have one of the most rigid schedules for their passing offense in the NFL. They have six games (LAC, SF, BUF X 2, and NE X 2) that played well defending the pass last year. Miami has one winning matchup (ARI) in the passing game and two contests with a slight edge (SEA and LV).

Offense

Game score led to Miami ranking seventh in the NFL in passing attempts (615), but they gained only 6.7 yards per pass attempts with almost the same number of touchdowns (22) as interceptions (18). Their first step in being more competitive this year is improvement in the run game. In 2019, they ran the ball 36.2 percent of the time while averaging only 21.8 rushes per game. Their ball carriers gained only 3.3 yards per carry with only three runs over 20 yards.

Here’s a look at the early projections for Miami, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:

Quarterbacks

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

Last year Tagovailoa was on a higher path after nine games (2,840 passing yards with 33 TDs and three Ints) than Joe Burrow, but his season ended in mid-November with a significant hip injury and a broken nose. In Week 8 of the season, he passed for 418 yards with four TDs and one Int against LSU, but Burrow (393/3) won the game 46-41.

Tagovailoa had an exceptional TD: INT ratio (87:11) in college with strength in his completion rate (70.0) over his last 24 games.

Last year Miami climbed to 12th in passing yards despite gaining only 6.7 yards per pass attempt. The Dolphins decided to improve their offensive line rather than investing in more offensive talent with the other draft picks over the first two rounds in this year’s draft.

Tagovailoa is a high ceiling player that needs to shine for Miami to become a powerhouse again in the AFC East. His upgrades at wide receiver should come over the next couple of drafts or via free agency.

The Dolphins don’t have enough talent in the passing game for Tagovailoa to hit the ground running. I gave him 93 percent of the quarterback snaps in the first run of the projections, but that number could be lower if Ryan Fitzpatrick gets in the way early in the year. For now, Tagovailoa is projected for 3,908 combined yards with 21 touchdowns.

His early ADP is 184 in the high-stakes market as the 28th quarterback off the table.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA

Over his last 23 games, Fitzpatrick has shined multiple times for the Bucs and the Dolphins while delivering elite value to some of his WRs. Last year he stole the starting job from Josh Rosen with his best play coming over the final five games (326 passing yards per game with 11 TDs). The Dolphins drafted QB Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick, which points to Fitzpatrick returning to a bench role this year. This best part of his game last year was unlocking the keys to DeVante Parker (72/1202/9). Possible short-term matchup play if Fitzpatrick earns the starting gig for a couple of games in September.

Other options: Josh Rosen, Jake Rudock

Running Backs

Here’s a look at the running back data for Miami over the last three seasons:

In one season, Miami went from a successful running team (4.75 yards per rush) to the worst team in the league. Their running backs combined for only 1,564 yards with seven TDs and 79 catches. Their backs caught 21.5 percent of the quarterback targets, which led to only 14 percent of their passing yards.

RB Jordan Howard, MIA

Howard held off RB Miles Sanders for the first nine games, but he failed to rush for over 100 yards in any week. From Week 4 to Week 9, Howard gained 476 combined yards with six TDs and seven catches highlighted by one explosive game (115 combined yards with three TDs and three catches). His season ended with a shoulder issue, costing him the final seven weeks.

Over his first three seasons in the NFL, Howard gained 3,938 combined yards with 25 TDs and 72 catches over 47 games. He averaged 283 touches per year with most of his big-play ability coming in his rookie season (14 gains of 20 yards or more).

Miami brought him in to upgrade their dismal success on early downs (297/962/7 – 3.2 yards per rush). The Dolphins also traded for RB Matt Breida on draft day, which points to him being a change of pace player and any higher upside in the passing game.

Howard has an early ADP of 110 as the 39th running back drafted. I have him ranked 33rd in my initial ranking while being projected for 958 combined yards with about five TDs and 22 catches on 215 touches. I expect his value to rise this summer, and Howard may end up with a floor of 240 chances in 2020.

RB Matt Breida, MIA

The RB situation in San Fran was messy, heading into last year. Breida had midteen touches (12.6 per game) over the first nine games with success on early downs in two contests (12/121 and 11/114/1). After missing three games with an ankle issue, his opportunity was lost to RB Raheem Mostert down the stretch and in the playoffs. Breida still has a lot to prove as a pass-catcher, but the Dolphins trade ensures he’ll be in the RB2 in 2020 with rotational value on early downs. I like his upside while also understanding his past injury risk.

His ADP (111) is just behind RB Jordan Howard in the early draft season as fantasy owners wait for some coach-speak to determine each player’s role. His projections (775 combined yards with three TDs and 33 catches on 150 touches) ranks him 40th out of the gate in fantasy scoring in PPR leagues.

RB Kalen Ballage, MIA

Ballage gained only 4.4 yards per rush in his college career. He’s a power type runner with some pass-catching ability. His lack of a full-time job in college sets a lower bar in the NFL. In his 12 games of limited action in 2018, Ballege looked explosive at times. He gained 5.3 yards per rush, but 75 of his 191 yards came on one play. Over his other 35 runs, Ballage gained only 3.3 yards per carry. Last year he gained only 1.8 yards per rush with none of his 74 runs gaining over 20 yards—a bottom-tier player who may play his way off the team by the start of the regular season.

RB Miles Gaskins, MIA

Based on experience running the ball, a fantasy owner won’t find a player in the 2019 NFL Draft with a better resume. Over four seasons at Washington as a starter, Gaskin average over 250 touches per year leading 5,888 combined yards with 62 TDs and 65 catches. Myles checked in at 5’9” and 205 lbs. at last year’s NFL combine. His strength (24 reps in the bench press) graded will while coming up a bit short in speed (4.58 40 yards dash) and quickness compared to the top RBs in the NFL. Gaskin sees the field well with the first step to get through tight holes. His short legs don’t match his frame, but his quick steps help him weave his way through traffic. Myles didn’t get many chances in the passing game while showing pass-catching hands. More than a change of pace back. Gaskin needs to prove himself in pass protection.

In his rookie season, Gaskins only saw the field for 125 plays, which led 184 combined yards with one TD and seven catches on 43 chances. Only a low-level handcuff in deep leagues.

Other options: Patrick Laird, De’Lance Turner

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver position for Miami is trending down as far as the overall completion percentage (their WRs caught 58.7 percent of the Dolphins’ completions in 2019) over the last two seasons. In 2017, their wide receivers caught 66.2 percent of the team’s completions, which led to over 73 percent of their passing yards. After struggling to get their WRs going in 2018 (175/2250/60), the Dolphins did complete more balls to their wide receivers in 2019, helped by more overall passing attempts (615).

Miami still lacks a viable WR2, which is highlighted by their completions to their secondary wide receivers (Albert Wilson – 43/351/1, Preston Williams – 32/428/3, Allen Hurns – 32/416/2, Isaiah Ford – 23/244/0, and Jakeem Grant – 19/164/0) behind DeVante Parker (72/1202/9).

WR DeVante Parker, MIA

It only took five seasons and a sharp kid from Harvard to figure how to get Parker the damn ball. He set career-highs in catches (72) receiving yards (1,202), touchdowns (9), and targets (128), highlighted by his play over the final seven games (39/733/5 – 7/135, 7/159/2, 4/72/2, 5/111/1, and 8/137)). Parker showed growth in his catches over 20 (21) and 40 yards (7) over his previous 39 games (27 and 7) in 2019. The Dolphins extended his contract in mid-December, which puts him at the services of rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa for the next four years. Chemistry is a big part of football, but it could be gone after one excellent season. Torn here, I want to believe, but I can’t get past his slow start to his career.

His early ADP came at 61 as the 23rd wide receiver selected. I set his bar at 76 catches for 1,063 yards and six TDs in the first round of Sports Illustrated projections.

WR Preston Williams, MIA

Heading into the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams earned an eighth-place ranking at WR at NFL.com. His rise came after an excellent season at Colorado State (96/1345/14), but the volume of targets (175) was a big part of his breakout. Williams emerged as a Week 1 starter for Miami, and he held that status for the next six weeks. Over a half-season of play, he averaged 11.48 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, putting him on a path to rank 36th at wide receiver. His season ended in early November with a torn ACL in his right knee. If the NFL season starts on time, Williams may not be ready for Week 1. May surprise with Miami getting a new toy at QB.

His early ADP (148) paints him as a WR5 in PPR leagues. I have him projected for 54 catches for 700 yards and about four TDs until I have a clear update of his ability to play all 16 games.

WR Albert Wilson, MIA

Over his first four years in the NFL with the Chiefs, he caught 124 passes for 1,544 yards and eight TDs on 198 targets. His game did show growth in 2017 (42/554/3) with Kansas City. In 2018, Wilson started as a rotational receiver over the first three games (8/142/2 on 11 targets) before earning three starts over the next four games. He flashed in the sixth game (6/155/2), setting up a waiver wire frenzy. Unfortunately, a hip injury ended his season the following week. Last year he battled a calf issue over his first month, which led to three missed games and emptiness in Week 1 (2/13). Wilson started to gain momentum over his final six games (29/267 on 37 targets) last year with his best value coming over his final three outings (5/59, 7/79, and 5/59). More of a flier than a target while never starting a game in 2019.

WR Allen Hurns, MIA

After flashing upside in his first two years (51/677/6 and 64/1031/10) with the Jaguars, Hurns struggled to find repeated success in any of his next four seasons. In 2015, he had 19 catches over 20 yards and ten TDs, but Hurns only has 23 catches over 20 yards and nine touchdowns over his next 51 games. Last year he had one contest (5/68) with more than four catches while failing to score over 15.0 fantasy points in PPR leagues in any game. Only waiver wire type options if Hurns gets a bump in playing time.

Other options: Jakeem Grant, Isaiah Ford, Mack Hollins, Malcolm Perry, Ricardo Louis, Greg Jennings

Tight Ends

With Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback, the Dolphins' tight end position gained much more value in 2019 (70/793/6 on 125 targets). The previous year, Miami barely used the tight end (39/386/2 on 56 targets) in their passing game.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA

After playing well in two (5/79/1 and 6/82/2) of his final five games, Gesicki climbed to 12th in TE scoring (137.0) in PPR leagues in 2019. His season started with only 15 catches for 153 yards and no TDs over seven games. Based on his play over his final two seasons (48/679/5 and 57/563/9), his ceiling should rise when Miami creates more offense in the passing game. Borderline fantasy starter, but I wouldn’t fight for him based on his early ADP (122).

His first projections came to 58 catches for 615 yards and four touchdowns, ranking him 16th at tight end in PPR leagues.

Other options: Durham Smythe, Chandler Cox, Michael Roberts, Chris Myarick

Kicker

K Jason Sanders, MIA

Over his first two seasons in the NFL, Sanders made 41 of 50 field goals (82.0 percent) while showing value from 50 yards or more (4-for-6). He missed one extra-point in each season, leading to a 97.0 percent success rate. In 2019, his field goal rate (76.7) did fall off from his rookie season (90.0). Miami scored only 72 touchdowns over the past two years. Possible upside leg, but the Dolphins have plenty of work to do before being considered a top offense.

Defensive Schedule

Miami has the eighth easiest schedule for their run defense. They have five games (LAC, LAR, CIN, and NYJ X 2) vs. teams that struggled to run the ball last year, plus five other contests (KC, JAC, DEN, and NE X 2) that offer a slight edge. The Dolphins only have two games (SF and SEA) against top rushing teams based in 2019.

On the passing side, they face five opponents (DEN, NYJ X 2, and BUF X 2) that ranked poorly throwing the ball last year. The Broncos should be improved after adding more talent at wide receiver in this year’s draft. Miami also has three challenging matchups (LAC, LAR, and KC) for their pass defense based on 2019. The Chargers’ passing offense does take a hit after losing QB Philip Rivers.

Defense

The Dolphins finished last year 27th in rushing yards allowed (2,166). Opponents averaged 30.9 rushes per game, which led to 4.5 yards per carry with 15 TDs. Miami only allowed nine runs over 20 yards (tied for 12th in the NFL).

Their pass defense gave up a league-high 39 touchdowns with 13 interceptions and only 23 sacks. The Dolphins ranked 26th in passing yards allowed (4,198) with quarterbacks gaining 8.0 yards per pass attempts (68 completions allowed over 20 yards).

The left defensive end position for the Dolphins’ defense is full of weak options, which is why Miami tried to add some pass-rushing talent to their linebacking position in 2020. Last year DE Avery Moss started eight games while offering no impact value in any area. The Dolphins hope to use DE/LB Shaq Lawson on the defensive line on passing downs. He’s a former first-rounder (2016) with 14.5 sacks over his past 30 games.

DT Davon Godchaux

Godchaux made 75 tackles in his third year in the league, which shows how many rushes teams ran up the middle against the Dolphins last year. Over 47 games in his NFL career, Godchaux only has three sacks. Miami hopes DT Raekwon Davis can make an impact in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round. His best value should come in run support. And he recently asked "Why Not the Miami Dolphins?"

DE Christian Wilkins

In his rookie season after getting drafted 13th overall in 2019, Wilkins had 14 starts. He picked up 56 tackles with two sacks while ranking as a neutral run defender. Coming into the NFL, Wilkens relied on his quickness and athletic ability to make plays in the center of the defensive line. He doesn’t have the strength to a foundation run-stopper if he loses his edge after the snap. Endurance can be an issue if worked too hard within a game. His game does offer upside if he adds a better anchor to his small piece of real estate on the field.

LB Kyle Van Noy

Over the past three years for the Patriots, Van Noy posted 221 tackles and 15.5 sacks while returning two turnovers into touchdowns. His run support value was much improved in 2019, along with his ability to pressure the quarterback. Based on his career resume in the NFL, he’s not a lock to be an edge in any area.

LB Raekwon McMillan

Over his first two seasons with Miami, McMillan flashed upside in run support, but he doesn’t have a sack. His play in pass coverage does have some risk. He battled a hamstring and a knee issue late in 2019, which led to three missed games. The Dolphins drafted in the second round in 2017, but McMillan missed his rookie season with a torn ACL in his right knee.

LB Jerome Baker

In his second year in the league, Baker pushed his tackle total to 126 while improving his ability to pressure the quarterback. He tends to be a liability in coverage while keeping his missed tackles to a minimum.

LB Emmanuel Ogbah

Last year Ogbah played well over ten games for the Chiefs (32 tackles and 5.5 sacks), but his season ended in Week 10 with a torn pectoral muscle. Over 50 games in the NFL, he has 154 tackles and 18 sacks.

CB Xavien Howard

Heading into 2019, Howard came off two straight seasons with receivers catching a low percentage of passes against him. He picked 11 interceptions and 25 defended passes in 2017 and 2018. Last year Howard suffered a left knee injury in Week 3 that required surgery, costing him 11 games. He also has a domestic issue hanging over him from last December.

CB Byron Jones

Miami wanted to improve at the cornerback position, leading to a significant investment in Jones. His value in coverage improved in 2018 and 2019 while continuing to be a sure tackler with success in run support. Even with his game trending upward, Jones only has two career interceptions in 79 games.

The addition of Noah Igbinoghene in the first round of this year’s draft gives the Dolphins potentially a third cornerback with upside. He’s a former wide receiver who is learning the position.

S Eric Rowe

From 2016 to 2018 with the Patriots, Rowe missed 27 games. In his first year with Miami, he set career-highs in tackles (18) and defended passes (8). His value in coverage improved as the season moved on. Rowe has a second-round draft pedigree (2015).

The second starting safety option for the Dolphins looks to be in flux with rookie Brandon Jones possibly having the best chance to earn the starting job. His game can be hit or miss when facing more talented players.

This defense has talent in the secondary with a reasonable core at linebacker. The Dolphins' lack of impact pass rushers does lengthen the passing window on some plays. I expect better play defending the run. Overall, moving in the right direction, but they still need playmakers to create turnovers—only a waiver wire fantasy defense with possible matchup value. 

MORE FROM SI FANTASY

• Buffalo Bills Fantasy Team Outlook

New on SI: 2020 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Team Outlook: Handcuff Zack Moss to Devin Singletary

SI Fantasy's Team Outlook series from high-stakes legend Shawn Childs aims to break down the Buffalo Bills to evaluate the offense, defense, coaches and everyone in between with a fantasy-slanted analysis.

Coaching Staff

Over his first three seasons as the head coach for the

Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott went 25-23 with two playoff appearances. Before 2017, McDermott work as the defensive coordinator for the Panthers over six seasons, with his best success coming in 2013. Last year the Bills lost 22-19 to the Texans in overtime in the AFC Wild Card Game. With QB Tom Brady no longer in the AFC East, the Bills moved to co-favorites to win their division.

Brian Daboll will run the offensive for the third year. He’s been working in the NFL since 2000, with four seasons of experience as an offensive coordinator (Cleveland, Miami, and Kansas City). Brian worked in the Patriots’ coaching system for 11 seasons. In 2017, Daboll was the offensive coordinator for the Crimson Tide that won the National Championship. He’s been part of five Super Bowl teams and one National College Championship.

Last year Buffalo ranked 23rd in points scored (314) and 24th in offensive yards, which was an improvement from 2018 (30th in points scored [269] and 30th in offensive yards).

Buffalo brought in Leslie Frazier to run their defense in 2017. He’s coached in the NFL since 1999, with six seasons coming as a defensive coordinator and three years as a head coach (21-32-1). In March, Frazier was promoted to assistant head coach.

Over the past two years, the Bills ranked second and third in yards allowed on defense. They improved 16 spots in the standings in 2019 in points allowed (259 – 2nd).

Free Agency

The Bills signed DT Vernon Butler, G Daryl Williams, DT Quinton Jefferson, DE Marion Addison, LB A.J. Klein, and LB Josh Norman in the offseason.

Buffalo hopes to unlock the keys for Butler after failing to live up to expectations in his four seasons with the Panthers. Carolina drafted him in the first round in 2016.

Williams fell out of favor for the Panthers in 2019 after failing to recover from his right knee injury in 2018. Over five years in the NFL, he played well only in 2017 when projected as an asset in pass protection. This year Williams looks to be an option off the bench with a lot to prove in 2020.

Over the last two seasons for Seattle, Jefferson improved his pass rush while showing growth vs. the run. The Bills will use him as a rotational player. He needs to do a better job tackling to make a further step forward.

Last year the Panthers’ defense had risk in all areas, which led to Addison finding a new home on the Bills. Over the previous four years, he delivered 39 sacks with fading value defending the run. Addison turns 33 in early September.

Buffalo lost CB Kevin Johnson to the Browns while not resigning DE Lorenzo Alexander and DT Corey Liuget.

Johnson is a former first-rounder (2015) who failed to meet expectations for over four seasons for the Texans. Last year he didn’t allow a touchdown while working in nickel and dime coverage for Buffalo off the bench.

Both Klein and Norman signed for $6 million this year, but both players played poorly in 2019.

Their most significant move in the offseason was acquiring WR Stefon Diggs from the Vikings for a 2020 first-round draft pick plus multiple other selections in the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Diggs gives Buffalo a deep threat, plus the ability to work in the short areas of the field.

Draft

The Bills' first player added in the 2020 NFL Draft came via the 22nd pick (DE A.J. Epenesa) in the second round. He comes to the NFL with plodding style even with some first-step quickness. Epenesa wins with power while owning a plan and multiple moves to help his push to the quarterback. He needs to get stronger, and his game will go down a notch when facing top offensive linemen. Running backs with speed will beat him outside and in space.

In the third and fourth rounds, Buffalo added help to their offense with RB Zack Moss and WR Gabriel Davis.

Moss gives the Bills a power running back presence to rotate in with RB Devin Singletary. Strength and power are his calling cards while ranking below the top running backs in the NFL in speed (4.65 forty yards dash) and quickness. After the snap, his first instinct is to find the open field while allowing a play to develop. Moss slides to running lanes with the plan to step on the gas at the first sign of daylight. He lacks home-run speed while offering the ability to break tackles. Moss has three-down potential while projecting well in pass protection.

The addition of Davis adds size (6’2” and 215 lbs.) to the outside for Buffalo while still offering speed (4.54 forty at the NFL combine). His route running and release need work, along with a higher motor. Davis wins with his hands in tight battles and while high pointing contested passes. His lack of quickness does hurt him in press coverage.

Buffalo bought some insurance at quarterback with Jake Fromm in the fifth round. His slow-footed style makes him a pure pocket passer, but his arm doesn’t have the zip required to match the top talent in the NFL. Fromm minimizes the damage in interceptions by showing the ability to get the ball out quickly when a play collapses to avoid sacks. He has been a winner his whole career with a tendency to rise in big games. Fromm grades well in reading defenses and displays a willingness to stand tall when needing a player to break-free downfield. His pre-snap reads allow him to find the best option in coverage.

With their last three selections in the sixth and seventh rounds, the Bills invested in K Tyler Bass, WR Isaiah Hodgins, and CB Dane Jackson.

Bass struggled with field goals in 2019 (71.4 percent) after showing upside in his kicks over his previous two seasons in college (34-for-40 in FGs). He has enough leg to handle kickoffs, but his technique needs improvement for more success from over 50 yards.

Hodgins needs to get stronger to handle top cornerbacks in press coverage. His quickness grades well for his size (6’4” and 210 lbs.) while coming up below par in his speed (4.61 forty). Hodgins bodies up his defender well with the hands to win in tight coverage. His rhythm off the line of scrimmage hurts Hodgins’ ability to create over the short areas of the field. He overplays his shake-and-bake leading to below-par route running.

There are plenty of concerns with Jackson’s game at the next level, even with successful stats in coverage in college. He wants to play a physical style in coverage, but Jackson lacks the wheels to match most wide receivers at the next level. He has more of a safety feel while lacking the size (6’0” and 187 lbs.) and tackling to handle that role. The Bills should use him in off coverage moving forward where his aggressiveness can be an asset.

Offensive Line

After posting the top rushing stats (2,630 yards and 29 TDs) in 2016, Buffalo slipped to sixth in rushing yards (2,017) in 2017, ninth in 2018 (1,984 yards), and eighth in 2019 (2,054). Last year they scored only 13 rushing TDs, despite the legs of Josh Allen (nine rushing TDs). The Bills RBs gained only 4.4 yards per rush, with only one of the 465 runs gaining over 40 yards. Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks and 87 quarterback hits, which translated to the 10th highest sack rate (7.8).

LT Dion Dawkins

Dawkins was a second-round draft pick by the Bills in 2017 after playing left tackle in his college career at Temple. He offers athletic ability and power to the tackle position with his best asset expected to be pass protection. Dawkins started all 32 games over the past two seasons while offering league average value in pass protection. His next step is developing his blocking in the run game.

LG Quinton Spain

In his first season with the Bills, Spain won the starting left guard job for 16 games. His game had plenty of risk in the run game while trending backward slight in pass protection. Only once over five seasons has Spain played at a high level (2016 with the Titans).

C Mitch Morse

Over five seasons in the NFL, Morse played well on pass protection in twice. His value in run blocking isn’t where it needs to be. Last year he struggled with penalties for the first time in his career, which may be a sign of decline.

RG Joe Feliciano

The Bills gave Feliciano a full time starting job for the first time in his five-year career in 2019. The Raiders drafted him in the fourth round in 2015. He finished as a liability in all areas, which invites job loss this year. Last January, Feliciano had surgery in his right shoulder to repair a rotator cuff issue.

RT Cody Ford

After getting drafted in the second round, Ford made 15 starts with losing value across the board in his rookie season. He had right shoulder surgery after the season. His game is built on power while needing to add more strength and experience. Ford is still learning his position, and speed players do create problems for him. His best value should develop in the run game.

Buffalo doesn’t have one offensive lineman that projects to be a plus player. Run blocking isn’t where it needs to be. The Bills hope to improve in the deep passing game this year, which helps keep a defense honest plus adds value to the play-action game. Overall, this offensive line grades below par across the board.

Offensive Schedule

The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing touchdowns (TDS).

This information is based on 2019, which will work as our starting point for 2020. We’ll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We’ll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.

2019 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2019.

2019 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL.

2019 Adjustment is based on the 2019 league average and the 2019 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat category and the basis for the strength of schedule.

Based on last year’s stats, the Bills have two mid-tier matchups against the Dolphins and one vs. the Chiefs for their rushing offense. They may struggle to run the ball against the Jets in two contests, plus three other games (NE X 2 and LV) that look to have some risk. Overall, Buffalo has the 8th most challenging schedule for their run game in 2020.

On the passing side, the Bills will be tested five games (LAC, SF, PIT, and NE X 2), with four contests coming from Week 12 to Week 16. Their only matchup that looks to have a significant edge for their passing game comes against the Cardinals. They do have five matchups that offer a slight edge (LV, TEN, SEA, and MIA X 2). Buffalo has the fourth most demanding schedule for their passing offense.

Offense

Over the last three seasons, the Bills have ranked 4th (487), 6th (468), and 6th (465) in rushing attempts. Last year they ran the ball 47.5 percent of the time, but their RBs struggled to make scoring plays (four TDs on 354 runs for 1,548 yards).

QB Josh Allen led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (9), but his yards per rush dropped from 7.1 to 4.7. He finished with one run over 20 yards after making eight runs over 20 yards in his rookie season over 12 games.

Buffalo finished in 26th in passing yards (3,229) while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Their goal in the offseason was to improve in the passing game highlighted by the signing of WR Stefon Diggs.

Here’s a look at the early projections for Buffalo, which will be fluid all summer after taking in all injury updates and training camp news:

Quarterbacks

QB Josh Allen, BUF

Over 28 starts in the NFL, Allen doesn’t have a game with over 300 yards passing while averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. On the positive side, no QB has more rushing TDs (17) than him over this span. Over his final full nine starts, Allen passed for fewer than 210 yards in six contests. His completion rate (58.8) showed an improvement, and the addition of WR Stefon Diggs should iron out some of his issues in the deep passing game. Allen gained only 6.7 yards per pass attempt in 2020, but he finished with 47 completions over 20 yards and seven completions over 40 yards.

Last year Buffalo struggled to move the ball with RBs (61/460/2) and TEs (46/604/3) in the passing game. Allen isn’t ready to be a great passer, and the Bills lack the key players to help him push higher up the QB mountain. They tried to add size at wide receiver in the draft, which make come into play in scoring in the red zone.

With about 37 percent of his fantasy scoring coming with his legs, Allen can’t maintain his 2019 final QB ranking (8th) without more chances and success in the passing game. Last year he posted one impact game (36.40 fantasy points), but he had 11 contests with between 19.00 and 28.10 fantasy points in four-point passing TD leagues.

Based on the above graph, Allen is projected for 3,541 passing yards and over 30 combined TDs with success in the run game (102/512/7).

QB Jake Fromm, BUF

My first thought when doing some research on Fromm was that he had a lot in common with Tom Brady.

Over three seasons at Georgia, Fromm went 36-7, highlighted by his play in his freshman season (13-2 with a loss in the national championship game). He passed for 8,236 yards over 43 games with 78 TDs and 18 Ints with no value as a runner (134/40/3). His passing total rose slightly every year (2,615, 2,761, 2,860) while playing in a run-heavy offense. Fromm had his best completion rate (67.4) and the highest number of touchdowns (30) in 2018.

Heading into this year’s draft, his value will take a hit due to a string of five straight games with weakness in his completion rate (44.8, 46.4, 47.8, 48.3, and 47.6) over his final six starts. On the positive side over this stretch, Fromm delivered five wins with 13 TDs and two Ints.

Running Backs

Here’s a look at the running back data for Buffalo over the last three seasons:

The change to QB Josh Allen has led to much fewer chances for the running back in the passing game since 2017. Even with a weak offensive line, Buffalo did show growth in yards per rush in 2019 compared to the previous two seasons.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF

In a limited role over the first two games in the NFL, Singletary gained 155 combined yards with a TD and five catches on 15 touches. He missed the next three weeks with a hamstring injury. Over his final nine games, including the playoffs, Singletary averaged 18.9 touches leading to 873 combined yards with two TDs and 26 catches with his best play coming at home over three contests (372 combined yards with a TD and ten catches). The Bills have a top rushing QB who steals plenty of TDs. Last year the Bills’ RBs gained 2,008 combined yards with eight TDs and 61 catches. Easy to overprice, despite expecting growth in 2020.

The addition of RB Zack Moss does knock Singletary down a notch for me. Moss has more size, and Buffalo may lean on him more at the goal line and in short-yardage situations.

Singletary has an early ADP of 34 in the high-stakes market as the 20th running back drafted. His initial projection (1,341 combined yards with eight TDs and 44 catches) at Sports Illustrated place him 19th at the running back position.

RB Zack Moss, BUF

Moss flashed upside in 2017 when he gained 1,416 combined yards with ten TDs and 29 catches on 243 touches at Utah. The following season he shined again on early downs (179/1096/11) while losing value in the passing game (8/50/1). His season ended after nine games due to a right knee injury the required surgery. In 2019, Moss regained his previous form while delivering an outstanding season (1,804 combined yards with 17 TDs and 28 catches on 263 touches).

The year Moss should work as the RB2 for the Bills with a chance at 120-plus touches, leading to 550 combined yards with three to five touchdowns and short catches.

A fantasy owner should find Moss between round 10 and 12 in most PPR leagues while having the most value to Singletary owner as a handcuff.

RB T.J. Yeldon, BUF

After receiving 159 combined touches for the Jaguars in 2018, Yeldon barely saw the field in his first year with the Bills. He finished with 187 combined yards with no TDs and 15 catches on 30 touches. This year he’ll work as the RB3 for the Bills while needing an injury to one of Buffalo’s top two RBs to gain more chances.

Other options: Taiwan Jones, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver stats for the Bills improved dramatically since 2017. Last year their wide receivers accounted for 64.2 percent of Buffalo’s completions and 70.0 percent of their passing yards. They still trail the league average in yards per catch (12.56) with growth needed in their catch rate (60.0).

WR Stefon Diggs, BUF

Last year Diggs had a flip from his previous skillset. Over his first five years in the league, he worked more like a possession type receiver (11.6 yards per catch), highlighted by his success in 2018 (102/1021/9). He set career-highs in receiving yards (1,130), yards per catch (17.9), and catches over 20 yards (20) in 2019. Diggs saw his targets (94) fall by 37 percent, which was more of Vikings’ passing issue. The Bills ranked poorly in WR production (192/2411/15) in 2019, despite showing growth. Buffalo wants to run the ball while developing its deep passing game. Diggs will see a sharp decline in his yards per catch in 2020 with only a slight bump in targets.

This year Diggs has an early ADP of 67 in the high-stakes market as the 28th wide receiver drafted. Over the previous three seasons, he finished 19th, 10th, 22nd in WR scoring in PPR leagues.

In his early projections, I struggled with the proper value for his opportunity. The Bills have three viable pass-catchers at wide receiver. For now, Diggs should receive a minimum of one-third of Buffalo’s wide receiver completions leading to 75 catches for 1,089 yards and seven touchdowns. Diggs ranks 17th at wide receiver after my first run at the projections.

If his completions translated to the same value in WR targets, then Diggs would see a bump to 140 targets based on last year’s wide receiver chances (320) for the Bills. His career catch rate (68.4) suggests his catches should be closer to 95 if he did indeed receive 140 targets.

Diggs looks to be a value in drafts, and I would expect his ADP to rise along with his projections over the summer.

WR John Brown, BUF

Brown took full advantage of his chances in his first year for Buffalo to deliver his best season. He set career highs in catches (72), receiving yards (1,060), and targets (115). His best play came in Week 1 (7/123/1) and Week 11 (9/137/2) while doing most of his damage over his first ten games (56/817/4 on 85 targets). The Bills gave him double-digit targets in five contests. Brown played much better on the road (44/662/4) than at home (28/398/2). With WR Stefon Diggs added to the roster, Brown slides to WR2 in Buffalo’s offense.

A fantasy owner can expect about 55 catches for 750 yards and five TDs as late WR4 (ADP – 122) in PPR leagues.

WR Cole Beasley, BUF

Beasley held value in his first year with the Bills after raising his bar in two of his final three seasons with Dallas. He set a career-high in TDs (6), targets (106), and yards per catch (11.6). Beasley scored all of his TDs over his final ten starts while producing three strong games (6/76/1, 6/110/1, and 7/108). A possession type wide receiver that works as a WR5 with occasional value to cover an injury or a bye week. A fantasy owner has to decide between a steady player (60/700/3) or upside when Beasley comes off the board (ADP – 191).

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF

In his junior season at the University of Central Florida, Davis put himself on the NFL map after catches 72 of his 133 targets for 1,241 yards and 12 TDs. He improved in each season in college. Davis projects as a jump-ball winner, with his hands being his best assets. Early in his career, he’ll work on the outside in the deep passing game for the Bills. Possible upside once he develops his release and route running.

Other options: Isaiah McKenzie, Duke Williams, Andre Roberts, Robert Foster, Isaiah Hodgins

Tight Ends

Last year the Bills’ TEs caught 15.4 percent of their completions while showing growth in big plays (13.13 yards per catch). Even so, their TEs picked up only 46 catches with minimal value in TDs (3).

Dawson Knox, BUF

His stats at Ole Miss (39 catches for 605 yards and no TDs over 17 games) and his first season in the NFL (28/388/2) won’t get fantasy owners excited. He did play with two of the top five WRs in the 2019 draft class. His next step is improving his route running and adding more strength to help in the blocking game. Last year he made 11 starts while falling short in his catch rate (56.0 – thanks to seven drops). Knox has a low ceiling based on the limited chance for the tight in the Bills’ offense.

Tyler Kroft, BUF

In 2017, Kroft played well as a fill-in for Tyler Eifert when he caught 42 of 62 targets for 404 yards and seven TDs. Kroft failed to make an impact (4/36) in 2018 with Cinci while seeing his season end after playing in only five games with a foot injury. The Bills paid him over $18 million for three seasons before 2019, showing his potential upside. Last year, Kroft broke his right foot in July and later suffered a left ankle injury, leading to a lost season (6/71/1) in fantasy value.

Other options: Lee Smith, Tommy Sweeney, Jason Croom

Kickers

K Stephen Hauschka, BUF

From 2012 to 2017, Hauschka made 89.5 percent of his field goals with exceptional value from long range (20-for-27). Over the last two seasons, he posted his lowest success rate (78.6) for a full season and a drop in his field goal chances (28) in both years. Over the last three seasons, the Bills scored only 101 touchdowns. Last year Hauschka made only one of his five kicks from 50 yards or more.

His job is at risk, which is why Buffalo drafted K Tyler Bass in the sixth round in this year’s draft.

K Tyler Bass, BUF

Over three seasons at Georgia Southern, Bass made 114 of his 116 extra points while being inconsistent in his field-goal tries (2017 – 78.9 percent, 2018 – 90.5, and 2019 – 71.4). Overall, he made 54 of his 68 field goals (79.4).

Buffalo should score more this year, and they haven’t had success scoring touchdowns in close with the run game. At best, the winning Bills’ kicker in 2020 will only have matchup value out of the gate.

Defensive Schedule

Buffalo faces eight teams (LAR, KC, LAC, PIT, NYJ X 2, and MIA X 2) that finished well below the league average in rushing yards per game. Their most success stopping the run should come vs. the Jets and the Dolphins. Their run defense will be tested in three games (TEN, SEA, and SF). The Bills have the fourth-best schedule against teams running the ball this year.

Their toughest matchups for their pass defense based on 2019 should come against the Rams, the Chiefs, and the Chargers (LA will have regression throwing the ball in 2020 with a change at QB). Buffalo holds an edge defending the pass in four contests (DEN, PIT, and NYJ X 2), but the Steelers (QB Ben Roethlisberger is back) and Denver (improved WR core in draft) will be much better passing the ball this year. Overall, their pass defense looks neutral.

Defense

The Bills ranked 23rd in the NFL defending the run in 2019 (1,649 yards) with teams scoring 12 rushing TDs. Ball carriers gained 4.3 yards per rush, with 12 runs over 20 yards. Buffalo had the fourth-best defense in the league vs. the pass (195.2 yards per game). They allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt with 15 passing TDs and 14 Ints while picking up 44 sacks.

The Bills finished 14th in fantasy defense scoring (109.0 fantasy points) in the Fantasy Football World Championships.

CB Tre’Davious White, BUF

White didn’t allow a touchdown in 2020 while picking up a career-high six interceptions with 17 defended passes. Missed tackles have been an issue over the past two years. He remains a top cover cornerback with a first-round pedigree.

The second starting cornerback slot looks to have risk. CB Josh Norman signed a one-year deal for $6 million, but his play hasn’t been elite since 2016. At age 32, Norman doesn’t appear to be a front line player anymore in coverage.

CB Levi Wallace, BUF

After signing as an undrafted free agent in 2018 out of Alabama, Wallace made 16 starts for Buffalo last season. Despite picking up 76 tackles, he did have risk in run support due to poor tackling skills. Overall, his lack of speed hurts his ability to cover top wide receivers. The Bills need to improve on this spot in their starting lineup if they want to contend in the AFC East.

S Micah Hyde, BUF

Hyde continues to be one of the top safeties in the NFL, especially in coverage. He’ll allow a high completion rate, but most plays go for short yardage. Over the past four years, Hyde has been a neutral defense in run support.

S Jordan Poyer, BUF

Poyer set a career-high in tackles (107) in 2019, but he did allow the most touchdowns of his career with receivers making bigger plays. Poyer played much better over the first four games last year, suggesting some fade in his game.

LB Tremaine Edmunds, BUF

Edmunds showed growth last year defending the pass while delivering his second straight season with over 100 tackles (115). He offers minimal value sacking the quarterback (3.5 sacks in 31 games). Buffalo drafted him in the first round in 2018. With two years of experience at the age of 21, Edmunds should only get better going forward.

LB Matt Milano, BUF

Milano played well in coverage, but QBs still looks his way three or four times a game. He still misses too many tackles with some growth pressuring the quarterback. Overall, his game lacks star power, despite setting a career-high in tackles (101).

LB A.J. Klein, BUF

Klein has been in the NFL for seven seasons, but he tends to struggle in all areas. His playing time increased over the last three years for the Saints. Klein has risk in coverage while allowing the most touchdowns of his career and no value defending the run.

DE Jerry Hughes, BUF

Over his last eight seasons, Hughes hasn’t missed a game. His upside rushing the quarterback is fading, and last year he played through two injuries (groin and wrist) that required surgery after the season. A former first-round player (2010), but his career peaked in 2013 and 2014. When healthy, he should be an asset vs. the run.

DE A.J. Epenesa, BUF

The Bills need another pass rusher from the outside, and they hope Epenesa can at least work in a rotational role. His game is built on power with enough moves to create to plays.

DT Ed Oliver, BUF

Oliver will look to create havoc rushing the QB from the interior line after getting drafted in the first round in 2019. His high motor should work well, but his aggressiveness and lack of size may be used against him on run plays. Last year he finished with five sacks and league average value defending the run.

DT Vernon Butler, BUF

The Bills signed Butler to a two-year contract in the offseason for $16 million. He set career-high in sacks (6) last year but showed regression defending the run.

Even with success on defense over the last two seasons, Buffalo doesn’t have the overall talent to hold that ranking going forward. They have two top tier players (White and Edmunds) with upside in two other spots (Hyde and Oliver) in the starting lineup.

Their secondary has plenty of questions, and I don’t see an elite pass rush. If your drafting on last year’s stats, give them a ride. I’ll fade with the hopes of finding a defense with more talent to the bar higher.

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